Netherlands vs Germany Prediction - 24 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.20Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 2-1
- Over 1.5 goals
- 5/5Germany · last 5 games
Form
- W 3-1
- W 5-1
- D 2-2
- W 2-1
- L 0-1
- L 1-2
- W 2-1
- W 7-1
- W 2-1
- W 4-0
Match analysis
Germany have scored sixteen goals in their last five matches, the heaviest output of any side previewed for 24 September, and it is the backbone of Superior's Over 1.5 goals call on Netherlands vs Germany at 1.20. Eighty percent confidence from the model reflects a combined 5.6 goals a game between two attacks both rated above 6.0.
Germany have scored sixteen goals in their last five matches
That volume includes a 7-1 win and three other multi-goal matches, and it lines up with their season average of 3.2 goals a game, the highest scoring rate on this fixture list. Even accounting for a tougher Dutch defence rated 6.2, a team scoring at that pace clearing 1.5 goals by itself is a low bar.
Netherlands have scored in four of their last five at this level
The hosts have their own scoring case: four wins in their last five including a 5-1, with the only blank coming in a 0-1 defeat. Netherlands' attack rating of 6.1 against Germany's defence rated 6.4 is a closer match on the model's scale, but between two sides averaging a combined 5.6 goals a game, the lean toward goals holds from either direction.
Netherlands' one blank in five was a 0-1 defeat
The genuine risk is a repeat of that single scoreless Dutch performance: Netherlands lost 0-1 without scoring themselves, and if their attack goes quiet again against a Germany defence rated 6.4, a tight 1-0 finish is enough to beat this line. It is the one result in ten recent matches between both sides that would.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.50More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 54%Ball possession46%
- 3.12Expected goals (xG)1.50
- 4Big chances2
- 22Total shots10
- 1Goalkeeper saves9
- 12Corner kicks1
- 11Fouls16
- 408Passes368
- 4Yellow cards1
Shots
- 10Shots on target2
- 6Shots off target5
- 6Blocked shots3
- 16Shots inside box7
- 6Shots outside box3
Attack
- 94Attacks69
- 2.99Expected assists (xA)1.55
- 16Key passes7
- 5/10 (50%)Dribbles1/7 (14%)
- 3Offsides1
Passes
- 347/408 (85%)Accurate passes302/368 (82%)
- 26/43 (60%)Long balls23/52 (44%)
- 11/28 (39%)Crosses2/8 (25%)
- 88Final third entries79
Defending
- 7/14 (50%)Tackles won7/13 (54%)
- 10Interceptions5
- 25Clearances29
- 18/30 (60%)Aerial duels12/30 (40%)
Other
- 15Free kicks10
- 17Throw-ins18
- 8Goal kicks10
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-19.2%Our score
- 2-18.8%Alternative
- 1-07.9%
- 2-06.9%
- 1-26.9%
Top five combined: 39.7%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Netherlands win and over 2.5 goals34.0%
- Netherlands win and both teams score25.0%
- Germany win and over 2.5 goals20.5%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals13.6%
| Netherlands | Germany | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 69.5% | 51.1% |
| Draw no bet | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| Win to nil | 23.8% | 13.6% |
| Either team wins | 79.3% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 82.0% | 71.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.1% | 38.7% |
| Clean sheet | 28.2% | 18.0% |