Portugal vs Wales Prediction - 24 September 2026
Form
- L 0-1
- W 2-1
- D 0-0
- W 5-0
- D 1-1
- L 1-2
- D 1-1
- D 1-1
- L 2-4
- L 0-3
Match analysis
Portugal vs Wales on 24 September is shaped by Wales' form as much as anything Portugal have done: no win in their last five, including consecutive defeats by 2-4 and 0-3. Superior backs the Portugal home win at 1.28, a call the model rates 74 percent.
Wales have lost three of their last five without a win
Two of those defeats were by multiple goals, 2-4 and 0-3, and the other three results were two draws and a further loss. A side with a defence rating of 6.3 has still conceded that freely inside its own recent matches, which is a big reason the model does not see this as a fixture Wales are well placed to control.
The attack and defence ratings on both sides are almost identical
Portugal and Wales carry near-matching numbers on the model's own scale: an attack rating of 6.2 apiece, and defence ratings of 6.2 for Portugal against 6.3 for Wales. Recent form is doing more of the work behind Portugal as the pick here than those ratings are.
Portugal have also failed to win at home this run
Portugal's own record is not flawless: their last five at this venue include a 0-1 defeat and a 0-0 draw alongside three wins, one of them a 5-0. If the hosts have an off night in front of goal the way they did in that 0-1, Wales' recent form for conceding goals rather than winning matches gives them little to lean on to prevent a draw.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.50More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 61%Ball possession39%
- 2.36Expected goals (xG)0.90
- 1Big chances2
- 23Total shots5
- 0Goalkeeper saves4
- 10Corner kicks2
- 12Fouls10
- 627Passes394
- 0Yellow cards1
Shots
- 5Shots on target1
- 11Shots off target4
- 7Blocked shots0
- 17Shots inside box5
- 6Shots outside box0
Attack
- 112Attacks82
- 1.98Expected assists (xA)0.14
- 18Key passes3
- 5/11 (45%)Dribbles3/8 (38%)
- 3Offsides3
Passes
- 569/627 (91%)Accurate passes325/394 (82%)
- 27/41 (66%)Long balls17/48 (35%)
- 8/25 (32%)Crosses2/10 (20%)
- 121Final third entries31
Defending
- 6/9 (67%)Tackles won6/7 (86%)
- 8Interceptions9
- 15Clearances24
- 15/20 (75%)Aerial duels5/20 (25%)
Other
- 9Free kicks11
- 16Throw-ins16
- 5Goal kicks11
More tips for this game
- Match Winner: Home
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Correct score: 2-0
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 2-012.6%Our score
- 1-011.8%Alternative
- 2-19.4%
- 3-09.3%
- 1-17.7%
Top five combined: 50.8%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Portugal win and over 2.5 goals47.1%
- Portugal win and both teams score27.0%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals12.9%
- Wales win and over 2.5 goals6.4%
| Portugal | Wales | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 88.0% | 28.5% |
| Draw no bet | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| Win to nil | 44.5% | 6.4% |
| Either team wins | 83.5% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 88.4% | 50.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.6% | 16.5% |
| Clean sheet | 49.7% | 11.6% |