Serbia vs Greece Prediction - 24 September 2026
Form
- L 1-5
- L 0-3
- W 2-1
- L 0-3
- W 3-1
- L 0-1
- D 2-2
- D 0-0
- L 0-1
- L 1-3
Match analysis
A combined scoring rate of 1.8 goals a game, Serbia's 1.2 plus Greece's 0.6, is less than half the four-goal mark this Under 3.5 goals pick needs to clear. Superior prices Serbia vs Greece at 1.29 for 24 September, which the model rates 73 percent, built on Greece having failed to score in three of their last five matches.
The combined scoring rate sits under half the line
Serbia's 1.2 goals a game and Greece's 0.6 add up to 1.8, and even allowing for some variance around that average, both sides would need a significant jump from their own recent output for this total to threaten 3.5. Greece in particular have scored more than once in only one of their last five matches.
Greece have failed to score in three of their last five
Three blanks in five, two of them 0-1 defeats and one a 0-0 draw, is the away side's actual recent record, and it lines up directly with their season scoring rate. Serbia's defence rating of 6.4 against an attack that has gone quiet that often is a big part of why the total is expected to stay low.
Serbia have conceded eleven goals in their last three away matches
The clearest risk to this line is not Greece's attack, it is Serbia's own defence on the road: three straight away matches produced a 1-5, two 0-3 defeats, eleven goals conceded between them. This fixture is at home for Serbia, but if that leak resurfaces and Greece's attack finds more than the one goal it has managed lately, the total clears 3.5 without either side needing a big scoring day.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.50More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 38%Ball possession62%
- 1.32Expected goals (xG)2.49
- 4Big chances3
- 9Total shots26
- 7Goalkeeper saves3
- 2Corner kicks6
- 11Fouls7
- 375Passes588
- 2Yellow cards1
Shots
- 4Shots on target9
- 4Shots off target10
- 1Blocked shots7
- 7Shots inside box16
- 2Shots outside box10
Attack
- 88Attacks126
- 1.24Expected assists (xA)1.65
- 8Key passes20
- 5/11 (45%)Dribbles9/19 (47%)
- 2Offsides2
Passes
- 319/375 (85%)Accurate passes526/588 (89%)
- 23/41 (56%)Long balls25/48 (52%)
- 4/11 (36%)Crosses4/24 (17%)
- 58Final third entries136
Defending
- 9/17 (53%)Tackles won6/13 (46%)
- 7Interceptions3
- 32Clearances14
- 23/34 (68%)Aerial duels11/34 (32%)
Other
- 6Free kicks11
- 10Throw-ins13
- 9Goal kicks4
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Correct score: 1-1
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-111.4%Our score
- 0-19.9%Alternative
- 1-29.0%
- 1-08.5%
- 2-17.1%
Top five combined: 45.9%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Greece win and over 2.5 goals26.7%
- Serbia win and over 2.5 goals19.0%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals18.0%
- Serbia win and both teams score15.2%
| Serbia | Greece | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 56.6% | 67.4% |
| Draw no bet | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Win to nil | 17.5% | 23.5% |
| Either team wins | 76.1% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 69.9% | 75.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 43.1% |
| Clean sheet | 24.1% | 30.1% |