Slovakia vs Kazakhstan Prediction - 29 September 2026
Our pick:Home win
Odds 1.38Won
- Correct score
- 1-0
- Alternative
- 3-1
- Wins
- 4/5Slovakia · last 5 games
Form
- W 2-0
- D 2-2
- W 2-1
- W 2-0
- W 2-0
- D 1-1
- L 1-3
- D 1-1
- W 1-0
- W 2-0
Match analysis
In Slovakia vs Kazakhstan on 29 September, Superior takes the home win because Slovakia score 1.6 goals a game to Kazakhstan's 1.0 and have won three of their last four at home. The price is 1.38, and the model puts a Slovakia win at 74 percent.
Slovakia scored twice in each of their last four home games
The model turns each side's scoring and conceding into an expected goals figure and prices the score grid from there, and at home Slovakia's side of that grid is steady: 2-0 against Luxembourg, 2-0 against Romania, 2-1 against Malta and 2-2 against Montenegro. Kazakhstan carry a 6.7 attack rating, but away from home they lost 3-1 in Hungary, drew 1-1 in Armenia and lost 1-0 in the Faroe Islands. Both of their wins in that run came at home. The correct score is 1-0, with 3-1 the alternative.
Montenegro left Slovakia with a 2-2 draw in June
A draw sinks this pick, and Slovakia have already given one up at home this year when Montenegro scored twice. Kazakhstan's 6.6 defence rating is respectable for a visiting side, and Slovakia also lost 2-0 in Northern Ireland last October. A 1-1 like the one Kazakhstan took in Armenia in June would beat the home win.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.51More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 75%Ball possession25%
- 1.36Expected goals (xG)0.18
- 2Big chances0
- 17Total shots3
- 1Goalkeeper saves6
- 8Corner kicks1
- 8Fouls18
- 703Passes237
- 2Yellow cards2
Shots
- 8Shots on target2
- 3Shots off target1
- 6Blocked shots0
- 10Shots inside box1
- 7Shots outside box2
Attack
- 146Attacks56
- 0.90Expected assists (xA)0.12
- 12Key passes1
- 10/23 (43%)Dribbles3/11 (27%)
- 3Offsides0
Passes
- 628/703 (89%)Accurate passes165/237 (70%)
- 26/44 (59%)Long balls13/45 (29%)
- 6/21 (29%)Crosses0/5 (0%)
- 183Final third entries30
Defending
- 9/12 (75%)Tackles won16/23 (70%)
- 11Interceptions13
- 13Clearances34
- 9/19 (47%)Aerial duels10/19 (53%)
Other
- 18Free kicks7
- 24Throw-ins21
- 2Goal kicks5
More tips for this game
- Match Winner: Home
- Correct score: 1-0
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-018.0%Our score
- 2-013.2%
- 0-011.4%
- 1-110.4%
- 2-18.5%
Top five combined: 61.5%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Slovakia win and over 2.5 goals27.3%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals21.8%
- Slovakia win and both teams score16.9%
- Kazakhstan win and over 2.5 goals7.1%
| Slovakia | Kazakhstan | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 83.3% | 41.5% |
| Draw no bet | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| Win to nil | 41.6% | 10.8% |
| Either team wins | 75.2% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 77.8% | 47.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 44.5% | 14.9% |
| Clean sheet | 53.0% | 22.2% |