Luxembourg vs Iceland Prediction - 29 September 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
Odds 1.29Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 0-1
- Under 3.5 goals
- 5/5Luxembourg · last 5 games
Form
- W 2-1
- W 1-0
- L 0-1
- W 3-0
- W 2-0
- D 1-1
- L 0-3
- L 0-1
- D 1-1
- D 2-2
Match analysis
Luxembourg lost 1-0 at home to Italy in June and won 1-0 in Albania three days later, and Superior expects the same kind of low total when Luxembourg vs Iceland is played on 29 September. The pick is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, which the model rates at 76 percent.
Iceland have scored three goals in five games
Superior's score grid starts from each side's expected scoring rate, and neither rate here points to a flood. Iceland average 0.6 goals a game from a run that included defeats of 3-0 in Argentina and 1-0 in Japan, while Luxembourg average 1.2. None of Luxembourg's last five games produced more than three goals: 0-1, 1-0, 3-0, 2-0 and 0-2. The correct score is 1-1, with a 0-1 Iceland win the alternative.
Iceland drew 2-2 in Canada and lost 4-0 in Mexico
Both of those results would have beaten this line, because Under 3.5 loses at four goals and a 2-2 is enough. Iceland shared four goals in Canada in March after conceding four in Mexico in February, so their away games have not always stayed tight. If Luxembourg's attack finds the form that put three past Malta in March while Iceland score twice, a 3-1 or a 2-2 would beat the pick.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.51More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 60%Ball possession40%
- 0.22Expected goals (xG)2.36
- 0Big chances3
- 5Total shots13
- 1Goalkeeper saves1
- 2Corner kicks2
- 11Fouls13
- 633Passes405
- 2Yellow cards4
Shots
- 1Shots on target4
- 1Shots off target5
- 3Blocked shots4
- 4Shots inside box10
- 1Shots outside box3
Attack
- 123Attacks98
- 0.31Expected assists (xA)1.54
- 4Key passes11
- 9/24 (38%)Dribbles3/4 (75%)
- 2Offsides4
Passes
- 560/633 (88%)Accurate passes326/405 (80%)
- 18/41 (44%)Long balls26/53 (49%)
- 0/8 (0%)Crosses5/8 (63%)
- 66Final third entries58
Defending
- 4/4 (100%)Tackles won15/20 (75%)
- 8Interceptions9
- 20Clearances21
- 6/25 (24%)Aerial duels19/25 (76%)
Other
- 13Free kicks11
- 28Throw-ins20
- 7Goal kicks3
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Correct score: 1-1
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-113.2%Our score
- 0-112.4%Alternative
- 0-011.8%
- 1-011.7%
- 1-27.3%
Top five combined: 56.4%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Draw and under 2.5 goals25.0%
- Iceland win and over 2.5 goals18.0%
- Luxembourg win and over 2.5 goals15.4%
- Luxembourg win and both teams score12.2%
| Luxembourg | Iceland | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 62.4% | 66.9% |
| Draw no bet | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Win to nil | 20.9% | 23.9% |
| Either team wins | 70.7% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 64.3% | 67.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 31.7% |
| Clean sheet | 32.7% | 35.7% |