Iceland vs Luxembourg: prediction, preview and head to head

Next meeting

UEFA Nations LeagueTuesday, September 29 at 06:45 PM UTC

Luxembourg vs Iceland

Correct score: 1 - 1
Alternative score: 0 - 1
Featured pick: Goals: Under 3.5 @ 1.29

Match analysis

Luxembourg lost 1-0 at home to Italy in June and won 1-0 in Albania three days later, and Superior expects the same kind of low total when Luxembourg vs Iceland is played on 29 September. The pick is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, which the model rates at 76 percent.

Iceland have scored three goals in five games

Superior's score grid starts from each side's expected scoring rate, and neither rate here points to a flood. Iceland average 0.6 goals a game from a run that included defeats of 3-0 in Argentina and 1-0 in Japan, while Luxembourg average 1.2. None of Luxembourg's last five games produced more than three goals: 0-1, 1-0, 3-0, 2-0 and 0-2. The correct score is 1-1, with a 0-1 Iceland win the alternative.

Iceland drew 2-2 in Canada and lost 4-0 in Mexico

Both of those results would have beaten this line, because Under 3.5 loses at four goals and a 2-2 is enough. Iceland shared four goals in Canada in March after conceding four in Mexico in February, so their away games have not always stayed tight. If Luxembourg's attack finds the form that put three past Malta in March while Iceland score twice, a 3-1 or a 2-2 would beat the pick.

Written by the Superior Football Desk · Text drafted by claude-opus-5-5