Finland vs Belarus Prediction - 29 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.53Lost
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 2-1
- Over 1.5 goals
- 5/5Finland · last 5 games
Form
- W 7-0
- L 1-2
- L 0-4
- W 2-0
- W 4-0
- L 0-2
- D 2-2
- W 4-1
- W 2-1
- W 1-0
Match analysis
A Finnish attack rated 7.0 meets a Belarus defence rated 5.8 in Finland vs Belarus on 29 September, and that gap is why Superior takes Over 1.5 goals. The price is 1.53, and the model gives two or more goals a 65 percent chance.
Belarus have scored in all five of their recent games
The model builds each side's expected goals from its measured attack and defence, then prices every scoreline from those two rates, and here both rates carry weight. Finland average 1.4 goals a game and Belarus 2.0, and the Belarus attack, rated 6.3, faces a Finland defence rated 6.7. Belarus scored in every one of their last five, including 4-1 against Syria and 2-2 against Burkina Faso, and four of those five had at least two goals. The correct score is 1-1, with 2-1 to Finland the alternative.
Finland failed to score in 4-0 defeats by Germany and the Netherlands
Over 1.5 loses on 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, and both sides carry recent evidence for one of those. Finland blanked twice in their last five, and Belarus won 1-0 in Cyprus in March, exactly the kind of result that beats this pick. If Finland's attack has the night it had in Germany, a lone Belarus goal would leave the total at one.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.51More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 61%Ball possession39%
- 0.56Expected goals (xG)0.46
- 3Big chances0
- 9Total shots9
- 3Goalkeeper saves2
- 8Corner kicks2
- 18Fouls14
- 540Passes340
- 2Yellow cards2
Shots
- 2Shots on target3
- 5Shots off target3
- 2Blocked shots3
- 6Shots inside box7
- 3Shots outside box2
Attack
- 97Attacks98
- 0.97Expected assists (xA)0.70
- 8Key passes6
- 5/11 (45%)Dribbles4/10 (40%)
- 1Offsides3
Passes
- 442/540 (82%)Accurate passes245/340 (72%)
- 25/53 (47%)Long balls27/69 (39%)
- 6/22 (27%)Crosses6/17 (35%)
- 97Final third entries58
Defending
- 4/9 (44%)Tackles won12/18 (67%)
- 3Interceptions13
- 28Clearances24
- 23/35 (66%)Aerial duels12/35 (34%)
Other
- 13Free kicks17
- 22Throw-ins24
- 7Goal kicks8
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
- Correct score: 1-1
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-112.5%Our score
- 1-011.8%
- 0-18.9%
- 2-18.7%Alternative
- 0-08.5%
Top five combined: 50.4%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Finland win and over 2.5 goals24.5%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals20.9%
- Finland win and both teams score18.3%
- Belarus win and over 2.5 goals16.2%
| Finland | Belarus | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 70.3% | 55.8% |
| Draw no bet | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| Win to nil | 26.0% | 16.5% |
| Either team wins | 73.9% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 75.0% | 65.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 29.5% |
| Clean sheet | 34.4% | 25.0% |