Belarus vs Finland: prediction, preview and head to head

Head to Head Stats & Predictions

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UEFA Nations LeagueTuesday, September 29 at 04:00 PM UTC

Finland vs Belarus

Correct score: 1 - 1
Alternative score: 2 - 1
Featured pick: Goals: Over 1.5 @ 1.53

Match analysis

A Finnish attack rated 7.0 meets a Belarus defence rated 5.8 in Finland vs Belarus on 29 September, and that gap is why Superior takes Over 1.5 goals. The price is 1.53, and the model gives two or more goals a 65 percent chance.

Belarus have scored in all five of their recent games

The model builds each side's expected goals from its measured attack and defence, then prices every scoreline from those two rates, and here both rates carry weight. Finland average 1.4 goals a game and Belarus 2.0, and the Belarus attack, rated 6.3, faces a Finland defence rated 6.7. Belarus scored in every one of their last five, including 4-1 against Syria and 2-2 against Burkina Faso, and four of those five had at least two goals. The correct score is 1-1, with 2-1 to Finland the alternative.

Finland failed to score in 4-0 defeats by Germany and the Netherlands

Over 1.5 loses on 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, and both sides carry recent evidence for one of those. Finland blanked twice in their last five, and Belarus won 1-0 in Cyprus in March, exactly the kind of result that beats this pick. If Finland's attack has the night it had in Germany, a lone Belarus goal would leave the total at one.

Written by the Superior Football Desk · Text drafted by claude-opus-5-5

Bookmaker odds

Home1.96

Draw3.30

Away4.14

More markets

Total goals

Over 1.51.44

Under 1.52.55

Over 2.52.48

Under 2.51.54

Over 3.54.80

Under 3.51.14

Both teams to score

Yes2.12

No1.66

Odd/Even

Odd1.87

Even1.83

Handicap

Home -0.251.68

Away +0.252.19

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Match History

Head to Head

These two have never met in our records.

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Head to Head

Belarus vs Finland: Head-to-Head History
Date	Home	Score	Away
June 9, 2026	Belarus	2 - 2	Burkina Faso
June 5, 2026	Belarus	4 - 1	Syria
March 29, 2026	Armenia	1 - 2	Belarus
March 26, 2026	Cyprus	0 - 1	Belarus
October 12, 2025	Scotland	2 - 1	Belarus