Georgia vs Ukraine Prediction - 28 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.38Lost
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 2-1
- Over 1.5 goals
- 4/5Georgia · last 5 games
Form
- L 0-1
- W 2-0
- D 1-1
- W 2-0
- D 2-2
- W 1-0
- L 1-2
- W 2-0
- W 1-0
- W 2-1
Match analysis
Georgia average 1.6 goals a game and Ukraine 2.2, a combined 3.8 that sits well clear of the line Superior has chosen for Georgia vs Ukraine on 28 September. That pick is Over 1.5 goals, rated 72 percent by the model and priced at 1.38, and both sides have scored in each of their last five matches.
Neither side has drawn a blank in five games
Superior turns measured scoring and conceding into an expected-goals figure for each team, and two teams who have scored in every recent match start with healthy rates on both sides of the grid. Ukraine won 5-3 in Iceland last October and 2-0 in Poland in May; Georgia drew 2-2 with Israel in March and lost 4-1 in Türkiye last October.
Ukraine beat Albania 1-0 in March
Ukraine can also win small: they edged Albania 1-0 and Azerbaijan 2-1, and Georgia kept clean sheets against Bahrain and Lithuania. There is no recent meeting between the two to lean on. The bet loses on a 1-0 either way or a 0-0, and a cagey Nations League night in which Ukraine score once and defend it is the most plausible version.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.51More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 49%Ball possession51%
- 0.91Expected goals (xG)0.17
- 1Big chances0
- 14Total shots7
- 2Goalkeeper saves5
- 4Corner kicks0
- 13Fouls14
- 521Passes558
- 2Yellow cards4
Shots
- 5Shots on target2
- 6Shots off target5
- 3Blocked shots0
- 4Shots inside box3
- 10Shots outside box4
Attack
- 102Attacks101
- 0.76Expected assists (xA)0.19
- 11Key passes7
- 9/19 (47%)Dribbles4/10 (40%)
- 1Offsides0
Passes
- 455/521 (87%)Accurate passes500/558 (90%)
- 9/33 (27%)Long balls19/37 (51%)
- 4/14 (29%)Crosses1/6 (17%)
- 88Final third entries76
Defending
- 12/16 (75%)Tackles won6/14 (43%)
- 5Interceptions9
- 7Clearances23
- 6/14 (43%)Aerial duels8/14 (57%)
Other
- 14Free kicks11
- 19Throw-ins18
- 6Goal kicks8
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
- Correct score: 1-1
- Correct score: 2-1
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-112.0%Our score
- 0-19.6%
- 1-09.6%
- 1-28.5%
- 2-18.2%Alternative
Top five combined: 47.9%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Georgia win and over 2.5 goals22.0%
- Ukraine win and over 2.5 goals21.4%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals19.3%
- Georgia win and both teams score17.1%
| Georgia | Ukraine | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 62.9% | 62.2% |
| Draw no bet | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Win to nil | 20.6% | 20.1% |
| Either team wins | 74.9% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 72.5% | 72.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 37.0% |
| Clean sheet | 28.0% | 27.5% |