Armenia vs Montenegro Prediction - 28 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.41Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 1-2
- Over 1.5 goals
- 4/5Armenia · last 5 games
Form
- W 2-0
- D 1-1
- D 1-1
- L 1-2
- L 0-1
- W 2-1
- D 2-2
- W 1-0
- L 2-3
- W 2-0
Head to head
- 9 Jun 2025 Montenegro 2 Armenia 2 Friendlies
Match analysis
Montenegro drew 2-2 in Slovakia in June and have scored in every one of their last five, which carries most of the weight behind Over 1.5 goals in Armenia vs Montenegro on 28 September. Superior's model puts that at 72 percent at a price of 1.41, even though Armenia have scored only three goals in five.
Montenegro have nine goals in five games
Montenegro's scoring rate of 1.8 a game supplies most of the expected total on its own, and Armenia's 0.6 lifts the combined rate to 2.4. Superior prices the match on a score grid built from those rates, so a side that scores in every game can carry the pick while the other struggles. Montenegro's games have been open at the back too: they lost 3-2 at home to Slovenia in March. The only previous meeting, in Montenegro in June 2025, finished 2-2.
Armenia have failed to score in two of their last five
Armenia lost 1-0 in the Republic of Ireland and 2-0 in Hungary last October, and Montenegro's 1-0 win in Bulgaria in June shows they can also win narrow. A 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 finish loses this, and a low-event game in which Armenia fail to score again while Montenegro take a single goal is the plainest route to that 0-1.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.51More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 54%Ball possession46%
- 0.81Expected goals (xG)1.36
- 2Big chances3
- 10Total shots12
- 2Goalkeeper saves2
- 2Corner kicks4
- 10Fouls16
- 493Passes402
- 2Yellow cards2
Shots
- 4Shots on target4
- 3Shots off target5
- 3Blocked shots3
- 6Shots inside box9
- 4Shots outside box3
Attack
- 85Attacks105
- 0.35Expected assists (xA)1.37
- 9Key passes10
- 5/10 (50%)Dribbles4/15 (27%)
Passes
- 418/493 (85%)Accurate passes333/402 (83%)
- 27/61 (44%)Long balls26/56 (46%)
- 2/11 (18%)Crosses2/18 (11%)
- 70Final third entries101
Defending
- 8/14 (57%)Tackles won10/15 (67%)
- 5Interceptions8
- 23Clearances19
- 12/22 (55%)Aerial duels10/22 (45%)
Other
- 13Free kicks10
- 18Throw-ins20
- 10Goal kicks6
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
- Correct score: 1-1
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-111.8%Our score
- 0-110.4%
- 1-09.1%
- 1-28.6%Alternative
- 2-17.5%
Top five combined: 47.4%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Montenegro win and over 2.5 goals24.2%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals19.3%
- Armenia win and over 2.5 goals18.8%
- Armenia win and both teams score15.2%
| Armenia | Montenegro | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 58.3% | 66.6% |
| Draw no bet | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Win to nil | 18.2% | 23.6% |
| Either team wins | 75.1% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 68.9% | 74.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 40.2% |
| Clean sheet | 25.7% | 31.1% |