Liechtenstein vs Lithuania Prediction - 24 September 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
Odds 1.28Won
- Correct score
- 0-2
- Alternative
- 0-1
- Under 3.5 goals
- 5/5Lithuania · last 5 games
Form
- L 0-2
- L 0-2
- L 1-4
- W 1-0
- L 1-2
- L 0-2
- W 2-0
- D 0-0
- L 0-2
- L 1-2
Match analysis
Liechtenstein vs Lithuania on 24 September pairs two sides averaging an identical 0.6 goals a game this cycle, the lowest combined scoring rate of any fixture previewed today. Superior's Under 3.5 goals pick is priced at 1.28, with a 73 percent read from the model.
Both sides average the same 0.6 goals a game
That shared low scoring rate is unusual even by this fixture list's standards, the smallest combined figure previewed here. Liechtenstein have lost four of their last five, and Lithuania have managed only one win in the same span, both sides struggling to create rather than struggling to defend.
Lithuania have failed to score in three of their last five
Three blanks, two 0-2 defeats and a 0-0 draw, make up more than half of Lithuania's recent matches. Liechtenstein's defence, rated 5.8, is not a strong unit on the model's own scale, but an opponent scoreless in three of its last five matches is doing a lot of the work behind this total regardless.
The price already needs a higher hit rate than the model gives it
The 1.28 odd implies this needs to land close to four times in five to break even, a shade above the model's own 73 percent read, the most honest caveat available on this pick. The scoreline risk sits with Liechtenstein's one win in the sample, a 1-0, and their heaviest defeat, a 1-4: if either side's defence has an off night the way Liechtenstein's did there, the total clears 3.5 without needing much from the other end.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.50More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 27%Ball possession73%
- 0.08Expected goals (xG)1.38
- 0Big chances2
- 4Total shots16
- 5Goalkeeper saves0
- 0Corner kicks8
- 15Fouls14
- 292Passes763
- 1Yellow cards1
Shots
- 0Shots on target7
- 4Shots off target4
- 0Blocked shots5
- 1Shots inside box11
- 3Shots outside box5
Attack
- 30Attacks187
- 0.03Expected assists (xA)1.35
- 4Key passes15
- 1/4 (25%)Dribbles4/14 (29%)
- 0Offsides1
Passes
- 213/292 (73%)Accurate passes678/763 (89%)
- 12/43 (28%)Long balls37/59 (63%)
- 0/1 (0%)Crosses9/24 (38%)
- 17Final third entries134
Defending
- 11/17 (65%)Tackles won7/13 (54%)
- 12Interceptions6
- 36Clearances5
- 9/19 (47%)Aerial duels10/19 (53%)
Other
- 14Free kicks14
- 17Throw-ins31
- 13Goal kicks4
More tips for this game
- Asian Handicap: Away -0.25
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Match Winner: Away
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Asian Handicap: Away -1.25
- Correct score: 0-2
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 0-212.3%Our score
- 0-112.5%Alternative
- 1-18.9%
- 1-28.9%
- 0-38.5%
Top five combined: 51.1%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Lithuania win and over 2.5 goals40.8%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals15.4%
- Liechtenstein win and over 2.5 goals8.4%
- Liechtenstein win and both teams score6.9%
| Liechtenstein | Lithuania | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 34.4% | 84.6% |
| Draw no bet | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| Win to nil | 8.4% | 42.3% |
| Either team wins | 80.9% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 51.2% | 85.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 18.5% | 58.4% |
| Clean sheet | 14.9% | 48.8% |