Toluca vs Santos Laguna Prediction - September 21, 2026
Alternative:3-0
Match Winner: Home1.30
We publish a pick up to three days before kickoff and never change that first call. Odds keep moving until kickoff as team news and money come in, so the closer the game, the more the Now number tells you.
What is the prediction for Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
The model's leading scoreline is 2 - 0, with 3-0 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Toluca are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
Toluca have scored 14 goals and conceded just two across their last five Liga MX matches, a run that dwarfs anything Santos Laguna have managed away from home this month. Superior is backing that gap to hold with the home win in Toluca vs Santos Laguna on 21 September, priced at 1.30 with the model's confidence at 74 percent.
Toluca have scored 14 and conceded two in five matches
The run reads five straight wins: 1-0 away at Puebla, then home routs of Atlas (5-2), Monterrey (2-0), Leon (2-0) and FC Juarez (4-0). That puts Toluca's scoring average at 2.8 goals a game against Santos Laguna's 0.8, and the head to head backs the same story. Toluca have won the last three meetings between these two, 3-1, 4-2 away and 2-1, so recent history and current form point the same direction.
Santos Laguna's only win in five came on the road
Santos Laguna's five match log is one win, one draw and three losses, and that win was a 2-1 scoreline away at FC Juarez, the exact shape of result that would beat Toluca tonight. A draw needs Toluca to go scoreless for the first time in five games, and an away win needs Santos Laguna to repeat a performance they have not managed at home in three attempts this month.
AI-assisted analysis, written from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
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2 selections at 1.60
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More Liga MX Predictions
Team news
Expected formations
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 15, 2026 | Toluca | 3 - 1 | Santos Laguna |
| July 17, 2025 | Santos Laguna | 2 - 4 | Toluca |
| April 7, 2025 | Toluca | 2 - 1 | Santos Laguna |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +12 | 19 | ||
| 2 | 8 | +9 | 17 | ||
| 3 | 7 | +9 | 16 | ||
| 4 | 8 | +2 | 15 | ||
| 5 | 7 | +3 | 13 | ||
| 6 | 8 | +2 | 13 | ||
| 7 | 7 | +2 | 13 | ||
| 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 | ||
| 9 | 8 | -2 | 13 | ||
| 10 | 8 | +5 | 11 | ||
| 11 | 8 | -1 | 11 | ||
| 12 | 7 | +3 | 10 | ||
| 13 | 8 | -4 | 8 | ||
| 14 | 8 | -2 | 7 | ||
| 15 | 8 | -5 | 7 | ||
| 16 | 8 | -7 | 6 | ||
| 17 | 8 | -7 | 4 | ||
| 18 | 8 | -19 | 0 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 19 | WLW |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | DWL |
| 3 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | WDW |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | LWW |
| 5 | Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWL |
| 6 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 | WLL |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | DWW |
| 8 | Puebla | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 | DLW |
| 9 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 | LWW |
| 10 | CF Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 11 | LLW |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 | WWL |
| 12 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 10 | WLW |
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 | LWW |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 | LDL |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | WDL |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 | DDL |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | LLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLL |