Toluca vs Santos Laguna Prediction - 21 September 2026
Our pick:Home win
Odds 1.30Lost
- Correct score
- 2-0
- Alternative
- 3-0
- Wins
- 5/5Toluca · last 5 games
Form
- W 1-0
- W 5-2
- W 2-0
- W 2-0
- W 4-0
- W 2-1
- L 0-1
- D 0-0
- L 2-3
- L 0-1
Head to head
- 15 Jan 2026 Toluca 3 Santos Laguna 1 Liga MX
- 17 Jul 2025 Santos Laguna 2 Toluca 4 Liga MX
Match analysis
Toluca have scored 14 goals and conceded just two across their last five Liga MX matches, a run that dwarfs anything Santos Laguna have managed away from home this month. Superior is backing that gap to hold with the home win in Toluca vs Santos Laguna on 21 September, priced at 1.30 with the model's confidence at 74 percent.
Toluca have scored 14 and conceded two in five matches
The run reads five straight wins: 1-0 away at Puebla, then home routs of Atlas (5-2), Monterrey (2-0), Leon (2-0) and FC Juarez (4-0). That puts Toluca's scoring average at 2.8 goals a game against Santos Laguna's 0.8, and the head to head backs the same story. Toluca have won the last three meetings between these two, 3-1, 4-2 away and 2-1, so recent history and current form point the same direction.
Santos Laguna's only win in five came on the road
Santos Laguna's five match log is one win, one draw and three losses, and that win was a 2-1 scoreline away at FC Juarez, the exact shape of result that would beat Toluca tonight. A draw needs Toluca to go scoreless for the first time in five games, and an away win needs Santos Laguna to repeat a performance they have not managed at home in three attempts this month.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.50From our blog
More Liga MX predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 46%Ball possession54%
- 3.45Expected goals (xG)1.86
- 4Big chances1
- 24Total shots22
- 3Goalkeeper saves7
- 6Corner kicks7
- 9Fouls13
- 439Passes515
- 1Yellow cards1
- 1Red cards0
Shots
- 9Shots on target6
- 12Shots off target11
- 3Blocked shots5
- 18Shots inside box12
- 6Shots outside box10
Attack
- 91Attacks97
- 1.98Expected assists (xA)0.94
- 19Key passes13
- 7/17 (41%)Dribbles7/15 (47%)
- 3Offsides2
Passes
- 361/439 (82%)Accurate passes435/515 (84%)
- 22/55 (40%)Long balls29/46 (63%)
- 4/14 (29%)Crosses6/21 (29%)
- 79Final third entries120
Defending
- 16/24 (67%)Tackles won13/23 (57%)
- 14Interceptions9
- 23Clearances22
- 15/26 (58%)Aerial duels11/26 (42%)
Other
- 12Free kicks9
- 15Throw-ins22
- 14Goal kicks12
More tips for this game
- Match Winner: Home
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 2-011.6%Our score
- 3-011.4%Alternative
- 1-09.9%
- 2-19.1%
- 3-17.4%
Top five combined: 49.4%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Toluca win and over 2.5 goals56.5%
- Toluca win and both teams score31.8%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals10.0%
- Santos Laguna win and over 2.5 goals4.7%
| Toluca | Santos Laguna | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 91.9% | 21.9% |
| Draw no bet | 90.6% | 9.4% |
| Win to nil | 46.3% | 3.8% |
| Either team wins | 86.1% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 92.7% | 50.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | 16.0% |
| Clean sheet | 49.8% | 7.3% |
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | +15 | 29 | ||
| 2 | 15 | +11 | 29 | ||
| 3 | 15 | 0 | 27 | ||
| 4 | 14 | +9 | 26 | ||
| 5 | 15 | +10 | 24 | ||
| 6 | 15 | +4 | 22 | ||
| 7 | 14 | +3 | 22 | ||
| 8 | 14 | +5 | 21 | ||
| 9 | 15 | -2 | 20 | ||
| 10 | 14 | -3 | 20 | ||
| 11 | 15 | +6 | 19 | ||
| 12 | 14 | 0 | 19 | ||
| 13 | 15 | -4 | 19 | ||
| 14 | 15 | -6 | 16 | ||
| 15 | 15 | -7 | 15 | ||
| 16 | 15 | -8 | 14 | ||
| 17 | 14 | -11 | 10 | ||
| 18 | 15 | -22 | 8 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 29 | WDW |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 29 | DWL |
| 3 | Atlas | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 | LWW |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 26 | LWW |
| 5 | Toluca | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 24 | WLW |
| 6 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 | DWW |
| 7 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 22 | WLL |
| 8 | Monterrey | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 21 | WLW |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 | WWL |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 | WWL |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 19 | LLW |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 19 | LLL |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 | DDL |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 | DLW |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 15 | LDL |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 14 | WDL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 10 | LWW |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 8 | LLL |