Superior Supercomputer
La Liga Table Predictor 2026/27: Season Simulator and Title Odds
Barcelona wins the La Liga in 93% of 10,000 simulated seasons computed on 2026-10-22, after 89 of 380 matches. Below: the predicted final table, every club's title, top-four and relegation odds, and a what-if you can run yourself.
Predicted final table
| # | Club | P | Pts | xPts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 27 | 95.9 | 93% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 9 | 21 | 82.5 | 6.1% | 100% | 0% |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 22 | 74.9 | 0.6% | 97% | 0% |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 19 | 66.7 | 0.0% | 76% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Villarreal | 9 | 9 | 54.5 | 0% | 9.2% | 0.9% |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 16 | 53.4 | 0% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| 7 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 9 | 49.7 | 0% | 2.6% | 4.8% |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 11 | 49.5 | 0% | 2.2% | 4.7% |
| 9 | Sevilla | 9 | 14 | 48.8 | 0% | 1.6% | 6.3% |
| 10 | Alaves | 9 | 11 | 48.2 | 0% | 1.5% | 6.0% |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 11 | 48.1 | 0% | 1.5% | 6.8% |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 8 | 9 | 46.5 | 0% | 1.0% | 10% |
| 13 | Levante | 9 | 10 | 46.1 | 0% | 0.8% | 12% |
| 14 | Osasuna | 9 | 11 | 42.9 | 0% | 0.1% | 25% |
| 15 | Elche | 9 | 7 | 42.8 | 0% | 0.1% | 24% |
| 16 | Getafe | 9 | 9 | 42.0 | 0% | 0.1% | 28% |
| 17 | Espanyol | 9 | 8 | 41.2 | 0% | 0.1% | 31% |
| 18 | Racing Santander | 9 | 8 | 40.9 | 0% | 0.1% | 37% |
| 19 | Malaga | 9 | 4 | 38.1 | 0% | 0.0% | 51% |
| 20 | Valencia | 9 | 6 | 38.0 | 0% | 0% | 52% |
Questions this page answers
- Who does this model make favourite for the La Liga 2026/27?
- Barcelona, at 93% of 10,000 simulated seasons computed on 2026-10-22, after 89 of 380 matches. Predicted final points: 96.
- Which La Liga clubs does the model most often finish in the top four?
- On 2026-10-22: Barcelona (100%), Real Madrid (100%), Atletico Madrid (97%), Real Betis (76%).
- Which La Liga clubs does the model most often relegate?
- Counting the 3 direct relegation places, on 2026-10-22: Valencia (52%), Malaga (51%), Racing Santander (37%).
- How is this table predicted?
- Each remaining fixture is priced from per-team attack and defence ratings learned from every finished match, then the season is played 10,000 times with Poisson goals. The percentages are shares of those simulated seasons, recomputed every morning.
How this projection is made
Every remaining fixture gets expected goals for both sides from our per-team attack and defence ratings, the model behind every match prediction on this site: learned from each club's whole history, one small step per finished match, with the opponent's strength priced in.
The simulator draws goals for both sides from those expected goals, adds the points to the current table, ranks by points, goal difference and goals scored, and repeats 10,000 times. Each club's number is the share of those seasons it finished in that place, recomputed every morning.
The settled record of the match predictions this same model produces is public on the accuracy page, with every selection in an open dataset (CC-BY 4.0) at github.com/st0jka/superior-tips-predictions-dataset.