Italy vs Belgium Prediction - 25 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.27Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 1-2
- Over 1.5 goals
- 4/5Belgium · last 5 games
Form
- W 1-0
- W 1-0
- W 3-0
- W 3-1
- W 5-4
- L 1-2
- W 4-1
- W 5-1
- D 0-0
- D 1-1
Match analysis
A 6.9 attack rating for Belgium is landing on the softest defence on this Nations League slate, Italy's 5.9, when the two meet on 25 September. Superior backs Over 1.5 goals for Italy vs Belgium at 1.27. The model prices it at 76 percent.
Belgium's attack meets the weaker of the two defences
Belgium have scored in four of their last five matches, including a 4-1 win over the USA and a 5-1 win over New Zealand, and their 6.9 attack rating tops both teams. Italy's 5.9 defence rating is the comparatively weaker figure, though Italy's own attack has been just as busy, with five goals in each of their last three wins. Between them the two sides average 4.8 goals a game, well clear of the 1.5 line this pick needs crossed.
A repeat of Belgium's blank night with Iran
This bet loses only if the match produces fewer than two goals, and Belgium have shown they can go that quiet: a scoreless draw with Iran is their most recent example of the attack stalling. Italy have not been held without a goal in their own last five games, so a low-scoring night here depends on Belgium's front line going missing again, and that single scenario is what beats this line.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.50More UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 56%Ball possession44%
- 1.52Expected goals (xG)2.70
- 4Big chances5
- 21Total shots19
- 6Goalkeeper saves6
- 4Corner kicks8
- 12Fouls11
- 590Passes464
- 3Yellow cards5
Shots
- 6Shots on target8
- 10Shots off target5
- 5Blocked shots6
- 14Shots inside box11
- 7Shots outside box8
Attack
- 127Attacks73
- 1.52Expected assists (xA)1.18
- 16Key passes15
- 7/13 (54%)Dribbles7/14 (50%)
- 1Offsides0
Passes
- 539/590 (91%)Accurate passes408/464 (88%)
- 19/35 (54%)Long balls19/41 (46%)
- 10/22 (45%)Crosses4/17 (24%)
- 137Final third entries82
Defending
- 4/11 (36%)Tackles won6/11 (55%)
- 7Interceptions9
- 19Clearances15
- 16/25 (64%)Aerial duels9/25 (36%)
Other
- 11Free kicks11
- 10Throw-ins9
- 5Goal kicks9
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-19.0%Our score
- 1-28.7%Alternative
- 0-17.1%
- 2-16.8%
- 1-06.2%
Top five combined: 37.8%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Belgium win and over 2.5 goals32.8%
- Italy win and over 2.5 goals23.3%
- Italy win and both teams score18.6%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals12.9%
| Italy | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 54.0% | 66.1% |
| Draw no bet | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Win to nil | 15.3% | 21.7% |
| Either team wins | 80.0% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 74.4% | 80.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 41.8% | 51.9% |
| Clean sheet | 19.3% | 25.6% |