Greece vs Netherlands Prediction

Correct score: 0-1
Alternative: 2-2

Bookmaker odds

13.30

X3.58

22.12

Methodology

Form

Greece

W 1-0
W 2-1
L 0-1
D 2-2
D 0-0

Netherlands

W 2-1
D 1-1
W 3-1
W 5-1
D 2-2

Head to head

16 Oct 2023 Greece 0 Netherlands 1 Euro Championship - Qualification
7 Sept 2023 Netherlands 3 Greece 0 Euro Championship - Qualification

Prediction, preview and head to head: Greece vs Netherlands

Match analysis

Greece hold the only rating edge in Greece vs Netherlands on 1 October, an attack rated 6.3 against a Dutch defence at 6.1, but Superior's correct score is a 0-1 Netherlands win. The alternative is 2-2. The scoring rates decide it: the Dutch average 2.6 goals a game and Greece 1.0.

The Netherlands scored in each of their last five

Superior builds expected goals for each side from measured scoring and conceding before pricing the scores on a Poisson grid, and the Dutch scoring rate outweighs the small rating gap. They won 2-1 in Serbia on 27 September and drew 1-1 with Germany, and their summer run included 5-1 over Sweden and 3-1 over Tunisia. Greece were held to one goal or none in three of their last five.

Greece won 1-0 in Germany on 27 September

The 0-1 needs a Greek blank, and Greece scored in both games this month, 2-1 in Serbia and that 1-0 in Germany, winning each. The Dutch have conceded in each of their last five, so a Greek goal is a live route, and it pushes the result toward the 2-2 alternative.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

Formations