Denmark vs Portugal Prediction - 1 October 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
76%Odds 1.34
Correct score1-1Alternative1-2
What is the prediction for Denmark vs Portugal?
Our correct score is 1-1, then 1-2. Both teams are in similar form heading into this match.
Match analysis
Denmark vs Portugal on 1 October puts a Danish attack rated 6.5 up against a Portugal defence rated 6.0. Superior's pick is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34 with a 76% chance, and it needs only two goals from a Denmark side that scored two or more in four of its last five.
Denmark scored twice or more in each of their last three wins
Superior turns each side's measured scoring and conceding into expected goals and prices every score on a Poisson grid. Portugal's attack rating of 5.9 against Denmark's 6.4 defence is the weaker route, so most of the expected goals come from the Danish side, with Portugal adding enough to make 1-1 and 2-1 common outcomes. Denmark's games this month went 2-0 against Wales and 2-3 in Norway, and Portugal's 2-1 win in Norway on 27 September also cleared the line.
Portugal's last five include 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0
Over 1.5 loses to 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, and Portugal have produced all three recently: 1-0 against Wales on 24 September, 0-1 against Spain in July and 0-0 with Colombia in June. Their average of 1.0 goals a game makes the Portugal side of the grid thin, so a Danish blank is the real danger, and Denmark drew 0-0 with DR Congo in June.
Today's acca
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