Denmark vs Portugal Prediction - 1 October 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.34Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 1-2
- Over 1.5 goals
- 4/5Denmark · last 5 games
Form
- W 2-0
- L 2-3
- W 2-1
- D 0-0
- W 3-1
- W 2-1
- W 1-0
- L 0-1
- W 2-1
- D 0-0
Match analysis
Denmark vs Portugal on 1 October puts a Danish attack rated 6.5 up against a Portugal defence rated 6.0. Superior's pick is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34 with a 76% chance, and it needs only two goals from a Denmark side that scored two or more in four of its last five.
Denmark scored twice or more in each of their last three wins
Superior turns each side's measured scoring and conceding into expected goals and prices every score on a Poisson grid. Portugal's attack rating of 5.9 against Denmark's 6.4 defence is the weaker route, so most of the expected goals come from the Danish side, with Portugal adding enough to make 1-1 and 2-1 common outcomes. Denmark's games this month went 2-0 against Wales and 2-3 in Norway, and Portugal's 2-1 win in Norway on 27 September also cleared the line.
Portugal's last five include 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0
Over 1.5 loses to 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, and Portugal have produced all three recently: 1-0 against Wales on 24 September, 0-1 against Spain in July and 0-0 with Colombia in June. Their average of 1.0 goals a game makes the Portugal side of the grid thin, so a Danish blank is the real danger, and Denmark drew 0-0 with DR Congo in June.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.66LostMore UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 54%Ball possession46%
- 0.67Expected goals (xG)2.74
- 1Big chances6
- 12Total shots19
- 6Goalkeeper saves1
- 3Corner kicks7
- 6Fouls12
- 527Passes449
- 1Yellow cards1
Shots
- 3Shots on target10
- 6Shots off target4
- 3Blocked shots5
- 5Shots inside box13
- 7Shots outside box6
Attack
- 96Attacks84
- 1.06Expected assists (xA)1.70
- 12Key passes17
- 5/12 (42%)Dribbles6/12 (50%)
- 2Offsides2
Passes
- 457/527 (87%)Accurate passes375/449 (84%)
- 27/42 (64%)Long balls23/51 (45%)
- 5/13 (38%)Crosses4/16 (25%)
- 117Final third entries99
Defending
- 7/10 (70%)Tackles won4/9 (44%)
- 7Interceptions8
- 18Clearances25
- 16/23 (70%)Aerial duels7/23 (30%)
Other
- 11Free kicks6
- 12Throw-ins14
- 4Goal kicks10
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-112.1%Our score
- 1-011.3%
- 0-110.9%
- 0-09.2%
- 2-18.1%
Top five combined: 51.6%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Draw and under 2.5 goals21.3%
- Denmark win and over 2.5 goals20.2%
- Portugal win and over 2.5 goals18.1%
- Denmark win and both teams score15.4%
| Denmark | Portugal | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 64.8% | 61.4% |
| Draw no bet | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Win to nil | 23.2% | 20.9% |
| Either team wins | 73.7% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 69.9% | 67.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 32.0% |
| Clean sheet | 32.4% | 30.1% |