Germany vs Serbia Prediction - 1 October 2026
Our pick:Home win
Odds 1.25Won
- Correct score
- 2-0
- Alternative
- 4-1
- Defeats
- 4/5Serbia · last 5 games
Match highlights
VIPForm
- L 0-1
- D 1-1
- L 1-2
- W 2-1
- W 7-1
- L 1-2
- L 1-2
- L 1-5
- L 0-3
- W 2-1
Match analysis
Germany average 2.2 goals a game over their last five and Serbia 1.0, and Superior's pick for Germany vs Serbia in the Nations League on 1 October is the German win at 1.25. The model gives it an 81% chance, with Serbia arriving on four straight defeats, including 1-2 at home to both the Netherlands and Greece this month.
Serbia conceded at least twice in each of their four straight defeats
Superior prices this from each team's measured scoring and conceding, and Serbia's run gives the grid little reason to protect them: they lost 1-5 to Mexico and 0-3 to Cape Verde before the two September home defeats. Germany's average includes a 7-1 over Curacao, but they also beat Ivory Coast 2-1, and the likeliest scores the model prices are 2-0 and 1-0 to Germany.
Germany lost 1-0 at home to Greece on 27 September
The German win loses to a draw or a Serbia win, and Germany have not won in three: 1-2 against Ecuador in June, 1-1 in the Netherlands on 24 September, then that home defeat to Greece. A side that failed to score at home four days earlier can do it again, and a 1-1 settles this against the pick.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.66LostMore UEFA Nations League predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 74%Ball possession26%
- 3.90Expected goals (xG)0.01
- 6Big chances1
- 32Total shots1
- 1Goalkeeper saves6
- 12Corner kicks1
- 10Fouls11
- 734Passes266
- 0Yellow cards2
Shots
- 8Shots on target1
- 17Shots off target0
- 7Blocked shots0
- 21Shots inside box0
- 11Shots outside box1
Attack
- 153Attacks59
- 3.35Expected assists (xA)0.06
- 28Key passes1
- 8/18 (44%)Dribbles4/12 (33%)
- 1Offsides1
Passes
- 671/734 (91%)Accurate passes187/266 (70%)
- 21/33 (64%)Long balls13/54 (24%)
- 6/27 (22%)Crosses1/3 (33%)
- 218Final third entries12
Defending
- 13/17 (76%)Tackles won10/19 (53%)
- 8Interceptions9
- 12Clearances28
- 18/28 (64%)Aerial duels10/28 (36%)
Other
- 11Free kicks9
- 22Throw-ins15
- 0Goal kicks20
More tips for this game
- Match Winner: Home
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After full time
Top five correct scores
- 2-011.9%Our score
- 1-010.9%
- 2-19.4%
- 3-09.4%
- 1-17.5%
Top five combined: 49.1%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Germany win and over 2.5 goals50.2%
- Germany win and both teams score29.7%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals11.9%
- Serbia win and over 2.5 goals6.2%
| Germany | Serbia | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 88.8% | 27.0% |
| Draw no bet | 86.7% | 13.3% |
| Win to nil | 43.2% | 5.7% |
| Either team wins | 84.1% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 89.9% | 52.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.4% | 17.6% |
| Clean sheet | 47.7% | 10.1% |