Greece vs Netherlands: prediction, preview and head to head

Head to Head Stats & Predictions

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UEFA Nations LeagueThursday 1 October at 18:45 UTC

Greece vs Netherlands

Correct score: 0 - 1
Alternative score: 2 - 2

Match analysis

Greece hold the only rating edge in Greece vs Netherlands on 1 October, an attack rated 6.3 against a Dutch defence at 6.1, but Superior's correct score is a 0-1 Netherlands win. The alternative is 2-2. The scoring rates decide it: the Dutch average 2.6 goals a game and Greece 1.0.

The Netherlands scored in each of their last five

Superior builds expected goals for each side from measured scoring and conceding before pricing the scores on a Poisson grid, and the Dutch scoring rate outweighs the small rating gap. They won 2-1 in Serbia on 27 September and drew 1-1 with Germany, and their summer run included 5-1 over Sweden and 3-1 over Tunisia. Greece were held to one goal or none in three of their last five.

Greece won 1-0 in Germany on 27 September

The 0-1 needs a Greek blank, and Greece scored in both games this month, 2-1 in Serbia and that 1-0 in Germany, winning each. The Dutch have conceded in each of their last five, so a Greek goal is a live route, and it pushes the result toward the 2-2 alternative.

Written by the Superior Football Desk