Goals: Over 1.5
78%Odds 1.32
UEFA Nations League
Croatia0England7
Correct score1-11-2
Bet of the Day
3 October 2026
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Top pick #3North Macedonia0vsScotland2 WonUnder 3.5
Match analysis
Over 1.5 goals in Croatia vs England on 3 October is Superior's Bet of the Day, at a price of 1.32. The model gives two or more goals a 78.1 percent chance, because England score 2.8 goals a game and Croatia have conceded in four of their last five, including 1-4 in Spain on 29 September.
England scored twice in both September games
England won 2-0 in the Czech Republic on 29 September and lost 2-3 at home to Spain three days earlier. Croatia score 1.4 a game and won 2-1 in the Czech Republic on 26 September, and the June meeting ended 4-2 to England. The model builds expected goals for each side from scoring and conceding strength and prices the full score distribution, and with England's rate this high, a game with one goal or none takes up little of it.
Croatia beat Panama 1-0 in June
That 1-0 on 23 June is the result that loses this pick, along with 0-0 and 0-1. The ratings sit close together, with Croatia's defence at 5.9 against an England attack rated 5.8, so England's attack holds no clear edge in that matchup. If England's scoring stalls and the game settles on a single goal, the bet loses.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
- Correct score: 1-2
