Goals: Under 3.5
77%Odds 1.29
UEFA Nations League
Northern Ireland0Georgia0
Correct score1-11-0
Bet of the Day
5 October 2026
Top picks
All 5Top pick #2Ukraine1vsHungary2 WonUnder 3.5
Top pick #3Cyprus2vsLatvia1 WonUnder 3.5
Match analysis
Northern Ireland won 1-0 in Georgia only ten days before this rematch, and Under 3.5 goals in Northern Ireland vs Georgia on 5 October is the Bet of the Day. The price is 1.29 with a 77% chance. Georgia have not scored in their last three games, and none of their last five went beyond two goals.
Georgia have gone three games without a goal
Superior's grid builds each side's expected scoring rate from measured scoring and conceding, and Georgia's comes out low at 0.6 goals a game. They lost 1-0 at Hungary on 2 October, drew 0-0 with Ukraine and lost 1-0 at home to Northern Ireland on 25 September. Their 2-0 win over Bahrain and 1-1 draw with Romania in June were the only games in the run with two goals, and none had more.
Northern Ireland's two home games finished 0-0 and 1-0
Northern Ireland drew 0-0 with Hungary on 28 September and beat Guinea 1-0 in June, their two home games in the run. Even the 3-0 win in Ukraine on 2 October stopped one goal short of what it takes to beat this line, and the most likely correct score is 1-1, with 1-0 next.
France beat Northern Ireland 3-1 in June
Four goals beat this bet, and the only game in either side's run that reached four was Northern Ireland's 3-1 defeat in France on 8 June. A repeat of the Ukraine scoreline with a Georgia goal on top, a 3-1, would also do it, so the risk sits with Northern Ireland's attack far more than with Georgia's.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Goals: Under 2.5
