Bet of the Day
3 November 2026
Top picks
All 5Top pick #2Benjamin BonzivsTaylor Fritz Taylor Fritz to win
75%1.25Top pick #3Cameron NorrievsBen Shelton Ben Shelton to win
74%1.33
Why this pick
Tommy Paul's two indoor defeats this autumn came against Taylor Fritz and Carlos Alcaraz, and nobody else in Lyon or Vienna took more than a set off him. That record puts Paul over Holger Rune at the top of Tuesday's tennis list, ahead of Fritz and Ben Shelton.
Thirteen points between Paul's chance and his price
At 1.435, Paul needs to win about 70 times in 100 to break even, and his chance is 83%. Fritz at 1.25 and Shelton at 1.333 carry chances at or slightly under their break-even points, so Paul's line leaves the widest gap on Tuesday's list. Fritz also meets a qualifier with 28 hard-court wins this season, and eight of Shelton's last ten sets went to a tiebreak.
Rune's last four matches all went to a third set
For Paul to lose, Rune has to win a deciding set, and that is where all of his recent tennis has been played. He went three sets with Daniel Altmaier in Shanghai and in each of his Basel matches, two of them won in final-set tiebreaks against Quentin Halys and Hubert Hurkacz. Paul won both of his three-setters in Lyon, against Benjamin Bonzi and Corentin Moutet, and his last defeat in a decider was against Daniil Medvedev in Shanghai on 16 October.