Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough Prediction

Our pick:Over 1.5 goals

83%Odds 1.21Won

Correct score1-1Alternative2-1

5/5 Over 1.5 goals Crystal Palace · last 5 games

Form

Crystal Palace

W 3-2
L 1-4
L 0-2
L 0-3
W 3-1

Middlesbrough

W 1-0
D 1-1
W 3-1
W 3-1
L 1-2

Bookmaker odds

Home1.77

Draw3.90

Away4.30

More markets

Total goals

Over 1.51.16

Under 1.54.55

Over 2.51.62

Under 2.52.30

Over 3.52.42

Under 3.51.49

Both teams to score

Yes1.57

No2.28

Odd/Even

Odd1.87

Even1.83

Handicap

Home -0.751.90

Away +0.751.82

Methodology

Match highlights

Premium

League Cup: Crystal Palace vs MiddlesbroughEFLWatch with Premium

Match analysis

Middlesbrough have not been involved in a single game below two total goals in their last five, the run behind Superior's Over 1.5 pick for their League Cup trip to Crystal Palace on 8 September at 1.21, rated 61 percent by the model. Crystal Palace's own defence has shipped three or more goals in three of those same five matches.

Middlesbrough have not been involved in a low-scoring game all run

Every one of Middlesbrough's last five matches produced at least two total goals, including back-to-back 3-1 wins and a 2-1 victory most recently. Crystal Palace's own goals-against column reads 4, 2, 3 and 3 across four of their last five, evidence their defence has been open at exactly the rate this total needs.

Crystal Palace's one win still came with goals at both ends

Palace's only win in this run was a 3-1, still a four-goal game, and combined with Middlesbrough's 2.0 goals a game on the road, the two sides project to 2.8 goals between them. The model's own goals market backs that up, rating this Over close to eight in ten.

Neither side has a qualifying low-scoring game to point to

Over 1.5 loses only at zero or one total goal, a total neither side has produced once in this run: Palace's tightest result was a 0-2 defeat and Middlesbrough's was a 1-1 draw, both still clearing this line. The honest risk is that recent form is the only guide a cup tie between these two provides, and one uncharacteristically quiet night from either attack is what it would take to break the pattern.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

Goals: Over 1.5Won1.21

Compare bookmakers

After full time

Top five correct scores

1-110.2%Our score
2-19.4%Alternative
1-07.5%
1-26.9%
2-06.9%

Top five combined: 40.9%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeCrystal PalacexG1.84

AwayMiddlesbroughxG1.36

4.1%

7.5%

6.9%

4.2%

1.9%

0.7%

0.3%

5.5%

10%

9.4%

5.8%

2.6%

1.0%

0.4%

3.8%

6.9%

6.4%

3.9%

1.8%

0.7%

0.3%

1.7%

3.1%

2.9%

1.8%

0.8%

0.3%

0.1%

0.6%

1.1%

1.0%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%

<0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.2%

<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 62.5%37.5% No

Over 1.5 82.9%17.1% Under 1.5

Over 2.5 62.0%38.0% Under 2.5

Over 3.5 39.8%60.2% Under 3.5

Combos

Crystal Palace win and over 2.5 goals34.4%
Crystal Palace win and both teams score27.2%
Middlesbrough win and over 2.5 goals19.1%
Draw and under 2.5 goals14.3%

Outcome markets
	Crystal Palace	Middlesbrough
Win or draw	71.5%	51.2%
Draw no bet	63.2%	36.8%
Win to nil	21.6%	11.8%
Either team wins	77.3%
Team goals
To score	84.1%	74.3%
Over 1.5 goals	54.9%	39.4%
Clean sheet	25.7%	15.9%