Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United Prediction - 6 September 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
Odds 1.38Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 1-0
- Under 3.5 goals
- 5/5Las Vegas Lights · last 5 games
Match highlights
VIPForm
- L 0-2
- L 0-2
- W 2-1
- W 1-0
- D 0-0
- L 1-2
- W 2-1
- D 0-0
- W 1-0
- W 5-2
Head to head
- 10 May 2026 New Mexico United 3 Las Vegas Lights 1 USL Championship
- 17 Aug 2025 New Mexico United 2 Las Vegas Lights 2 USL Championship
Team averages before kickoff
For
- 16.6Total shots12.0
- 4.0Shots on target3.6
- 3.6Corner kicks3.8
- 2.0Cards3.6
Against
- 10.8Total shots16.8
- 3.8Shots on target4.8
- 4.6Corner kicks5.8
- 2.4Cards2.0
Match analysis
New Mexico United arrive unbeaten in four without needing a flood of goals to stay that way, and that controlled record against a Las Vegas Lights side short on firepower is why Superior backs Under 3.5 goals at 1.38 for their USL Championship meeting on 6 September, a 77 percent probability.
New Mexico's unbeaten run has still been low scoring
New Mexico have won three and drawn one of their last five without needing a flood of goals to do it, their heaviest win a 5-2 away from home two matches back. Las Vegas have scored in three of their last five but rarely more than once in a game, and their most recent result was a scoreless draw. That combination, a controlled unbeaten side against a team short on firepower, points toward a game that stays under control rather than opens up.
New Mexico's 5-2 is the scoreline that beats this
LOSES IF: four or more goals combined. New Mexico's 5-2 win two matches ago is proof their attack can put a game out of reach quickly, and Las Vegas have shipped multiple goals at home this run too. If that version of New Mexico turns up rather than the tighter one from their last two results, the total climbs past this line fast.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.59From our blog
More USL Championship predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 43%Ball possession57%
- 2Big chances1
- 18Total shots12
- 2Goalkeeper saves4
- 3Corner kicks8
- 14Fouls12
- 313Passes418
- 1Yellow cards4
Shots
- 5Shots on target4
- 10Shots off target4
- 3Blocked shots4
- 13Shots inside box8
Attack
- 106Attacks95
- 12Key passes10
- 3/8 (38%)Dribbles3/14 (21%)
- 3Offsides4
Passes
- 246/313 (79%)Accurate passes355/418 (85%)
- 32/68 (47%)Long balls48/81 (59%)
- 5/19 (26%)Crosses6/17 (35%)
- 51Final third entries71
Defending
- 11/14 (79%)Tackles won7/10 (70%)
- 1Interceptions6
- 13Clearances20
- 9/20 (45%)Aerial duels11/20 (55%)
Other
- 11Free kicks14
- 20Throw-ins18
- 9Goal kicks12
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Goals: Under 2.5
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-113.0%Our score
- 1-010.9%Alternative
- 0-110.4%
- 0-08.7%
- 2-18.1%
Top five combined: 51.1%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Draw and under 2.5 goals21.7%
- Las Vegas Lights win and over 2.5 goals20.1%
- New Mexico United win and over 2.5 goals18.2%
- Las Vegas Lights win and both teams score16.1%
| Las Vegas Lights | New Mexico United | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 65.3% | 62.1% |
| Draw no bet | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Win to nil | 21.8% | 19.9% |
| Either team wins | 72.6% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 71.4% | 69.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 33.2% |
| Clean sheet | 30.6% | 28.6% |
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | +11 | 52 | ||
| 1 | 30 | +26 | 61 | ||
| 2 | 30 | +21 | 53 | ||
| 2 | 30 | +14 | 51 | ||
| 3 | 30 | +10 | 50 | ||
| 3 | 30 | +13 | 51 | ||
| 4 | 30 | +8 | 47 | ||
| 4 | 30 | +18 | 48 | ||
| 5 | 30 | +6 | 47 | ||
| 5 | 30 | +3 | 45 | ||
| 6 | 30 | +2 | 43 | ||
| 6 | 30 | +2 | 45 | ||
| 7 | 30 | +3 | 43 | ||
| 7 | 30 | +9 | 42 | ||
| 8 | 30 | -1 | 40 | ||
| 8 | 30 | -10 | 36 | ||
| 9 | 30 | -6 | 34 | ||
| 9 | 30 | -10 | 39 | ||
| 10 | 30 | -10 | 31 | ||
| 10 | 30 | -1 | 38 | ||
| 11 | 30 | -6 | 30 | ||
| 11 | 30 | -7 | 36 | ||
| 12 | 30 | -20 | 24 | ||
| 12 | 30 | -29 | 21 | ||
| 13 | 30 | -46 | 14 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 52 | WWWWD |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 61 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 53 | WLDLW |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 51 | WWDWL |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 50 | LWLWL |
| 3 | Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 47 | LWLWD |
| 4 | Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 48 | WDWLW |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 38 | 6 | 47 | LWWWL |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 45 | WLLWL |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 43 | LDLDL |
| 6 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 45 | WWLDW |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 43 | WDWLW |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 42 | LWWLD |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 40 | DDWLL |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 36 | DLLWD |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 34 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 39 | WWDDW |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 31 | WWDDL |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 38 | LLLLW |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 30 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 36 | DWWLL |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 24 | LLLDW |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 34 | 63 | -29 | 21 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 78 | -46 | 14 | LLDWD |