Leganes vs Castellón Prediction - 28 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.28Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 1-2
- Over 1.5 goals
- 4/5Castellón · last 5 games
Form
- W 3-2
- L 0-2
- D 0-0
- W 1-0
- W 1-0
- W 5-0
- W 2-1
- W 2-0
- W 2-1
- D 0-0
Head to head
- 16 Jan 2026 Castellón 2 Leganes 0 Segunda Division
- 29 Sept 2025 Leganes 0 Castellón 1 Segunda Division
Team averages before kickoff
For
- 10.3Total shots14.5
- 4.5Shots on target5.3
- 2.7Corner kicks5.7
- 1.9Cards2.0
Against
- 17.2Total shots8.8
- 4.7Shots on target2.8
- 5.4Corner kicks3.8
- 2.1Cards2.7
Match analysis
Castellón arrive unbeaten in five, and their 5-0 win over Tenerife on 19 September is the loudest number in Leganes vs Castellón on 28 September. Superior's pick is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, rated a 78 percent chance by the model, because a visiting attack scoring 2.2 a game needs little help from Leganes to reach two.
Castellón have scored 11 goals in their last five
Superior builds an expected scoring rate for each side from what it scores and concedes, then prices every scoreline on a Poisson grid. Castellón carry the heavier side of that grid: wins at Girona (2-1) and over Albacete (2-0) sit alongside the Tenerife result, and they scored in four of the five. Leganes offer a second route, having beaten Granada 3-2 at home on 20 September, a week after they lost 2-0 at the same Tenerife side Castellón put five past.
Three of Leganes' last five had fewer than two goals
Leganes drew 0-0 at Las Palmas and won 1-0 against Eldense and at Oviedo, and they failed to score in two of their last five. The last time Castellón visited, in September 2025, they won 1-0. A repeat of that 1-0, or a 0-0, loses the bet, and a Leganes side that keeps the game as tight as it did in August is the real threat here.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.51Match stats
Match overview
- 44%Ball possession56%
- 1.65Expected goals (xG)1.55
- 3Big chances2
- 15Total shots20
- 4Goalkeeper saves2
- 4Corner kicks2
- 17Fouls11
- 390Passes518
- 6Yellow cards1
- 0Red cards1
Shots
- 2Shots on target6
- 10Shots off target7
- 3Blocked shots7
- 7Shots inside box10
- 8Shots outside box10
Attack
- 85Attacks105
- 0.80Expected assists (xA)0.98
- 8Key passes14
- 3/16 (19%)Dribbles6/14 (43%)
- 3Offsides0
Passes
- 320/390 (82%)Accurate passes441/518 (85%)
- 21/52 (40%)Long balls8/40 (20%)
- 4/21 (19%)Crosses1/9 (11%)
- 61Final third entries109
Defending
- 5/19 (26%)Tackles won14/18 (78%)
- 13Interceptions7
- 19Clearances33
- 12/20 (60%)Aerial duels8/20 (40%)
Other
- 10Free kicks17
- 29Throw-ins22
- 8Goal kicks13
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
- Correct score: 1-1
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-113.3%Our score
- 1-010.6%
- 0-110.1%
- 0-09.1%
- 2-18.1%
Top five combined: 51.2%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Draw and under 2.5 goals22.4%
- Castellón win and over 2.5 goals19.8%
- Leganes win and over 2.5 goals18.7%
- Leganes win and both teams score15.3%
| Leganes | Castellón | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 63.9% | 64.5% |
| Draw no bet | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Win to nil | 20.2% | 20.4% |
| Either team wins | 71.7% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 70.5% | 70.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 35.0% |
| Clean sheet | 29.3% | 29.5% |
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +14 | 29 | |
| 2 | 12 | +18 | 27 | |
| 3 | 13 | +5 | 24 | |
| 4 | 12 | +7 | 23 | |
| 5 | 12 | +6 | 23 | |
| 6 | 12 | +8 | 22 | |
| 7 | 13 | -1 | 22 | |
| 8 | 13 | +10 | 21 | |
| 9 | 13 | +3 | 21 | |
| 10 | 13 | 0 | 19 | |
| 11 | 13 | +2 | 18 | |
| 12 | 12 | +1 | 17 | |
| 13 | 12 | -4 | 17 | |
| 14 | 13 | -2 | 16 | |
| 15 | 12 | -4 | 14 | |
| 16 | 13 | -6 | 13 | |
| 17 | 13 | -5 | 12 | |
| 18 | 13 | -12 | 12 | |
| 19 | 12 | -7 | 11 | |
| 20 | 13 | -2 | 10 | |
| 21 | 13 | -11 | 10 | |
| 22 | 13 | -20 | 5 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 29 | |
| 2 | Castellón | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 27 | |
| 3 | Burgos | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 24 | |
| 4 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 23 | |
| 5 | Granada CF | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 23 | |
| 6 | Mallorca | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 22 | |
| 8 | Girona | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 21 | |
| 9 | Oviedo | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 21 | |
| 10 | Cordoba | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 19 | |
| 11 | Valladolid | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 18 | |
| 12 | Sabadell | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 17 | |
| 13 | Las Palmas | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 17 | |
| 14 | Tenerife | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 | |
| 15 | Eldense | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 | |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 13 | |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 12 | |
| 18 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 12 | |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 | |
| 20 | Cadiz | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 10 | |
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 | |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 5 |