Estudiantes de La Plata vs Gimnasia M. Prediction - 5 October 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
79%Odds 1.25
Correct score1-0Alternative1-1
What is the prediction for Estudiantes de La Plata vs Gimnasia M.?
Our correct score is 1-0, then 1-1. Gimnasia M. are in better form heading into this match.
Match analysis
Estudiantes are in the title race on a scoring rate of 1.2 goals a game, and Gimnasia Mendoza arrive in the relegation fight. Superior's position for Estudiantes vs Gimnasia Mendoza on 5 October is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, which the model rates a 79 percent chance, with 1-0 to Estudiantes as its correct score.
Four of Estudiantes' last five finished with three goals or fewer
Estudiantes beat Corinthians 1-0 away and Platense 2-1 at home, drew 1-1 with Corinthians and lost 1-2 at Lanus. Gimnasia score 1.6 a game and drew 0-0 with Riestra on 19 September. The model turns each team's scoring and conceding strength into expected goals and prices the full score distribution, and four goals would need both sides to run well above those rates on the same night.
Gimnasia won 3-2 at Gimnasia La Plata and drew 2-2 with Boca
Two of Gimnasia's last five reached four goals, the 3-2 win at Gimnasia La Plata on 22 August and the 2-2 with Boca on 5 September. Estudiantes also lost 1-3 at home to Rosario Central on 26 September. A 2-2 or a 3-1 beats this pick, and those three results show both sides have reached four recently.
More tips for this game
- Correct score: 1-0
Today's acca
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Formations
Expected formations
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | +14 | 34 | ||
| 1 | 16 | +12 | 31 | ||
| 2 | 16 | +10 | 29 | ||
| 2 | 16 | +13 | 30 | ||
| 3 | 16 | +6 | 28 | ||
| 3 | 16 | +4 | 29 | ||
| 4 | 16 | +4 | 28 | ||
| 4 | 16 | +4 | 26 | ||
| 5 | 16 | +4 | 26 | ||
| 5 | 16 | +4 | 24 | ||
| 6 | 16 | +3 | 24 | ||
| 6 | 16 | 0 | 26 | ||
| 7 | 16 | +4 | 22 | ||
| 7 | 16 | 0 | 22 | ||
| 7 | 16 | 0 | 22 | ||
| 8 | 16 | +2 | 21 | ||
| 8 | 16 | +4 | 21 | ||
| 9 | 16 | 0 | 21 | ||
| 9 | 16 | 0 | 21 | ||
| 10 | 16 | -3 | 19 | ||
| 10 | 16 | +3 | 20 | ||
| 11 | 16 | -7 | 19 | ||
| 11 | 16 | -8 | 19 | ||
| 12 | 16 | -2 | 18 | ||
| 12 | 16 | -5 | 16 | ||
| 13 | 16 | -5 | 14 | ||
| 13 | 16 | -10 | 16 | ||
| 14 | 16 | -12 | 15 | ||
| 14 | 16 | -13 | 8 | ||
| 15 | 16 | -7 | 11 | ||
| 15 | 16 | -19 | 5 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | |
| 1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | |
| 2 | River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | |
| 3 | Argentinos Juniors | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | |
| 4 | Rosario Central | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 28 | |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 26 | |
| 5 | Belgrano Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 26 | |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 24 | |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 24 | |
| 6 | Gimnasia La Plata | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 26 | |
| 7 | Huracan | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 22 | |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 | |
| 7 | San Lorenzo de Almagro | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 | |
| 8 | Racing Club | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 21 | |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 21 | |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 | |
| 9 | Barracas Central | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 21 | |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 | |
| 10 | Tigre | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20 | |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 19 | |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 | |
| 12 | Banfield | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 | |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 | |
| 13 | Atletico Tucuman | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 14 | |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 | |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | |
| 15 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 |