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Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC Prediction - 12 October 2026

AFC Champions LeagueWorldFull time
Al-Gharafa
1-2
Esteghlal FC

Our pick:Over 1.5 goals

81%Odds 1.22Won

Correct score1-1Alternative1-2

4/5 Over 1.5 goals Al-Gharafa · last 5 games

Form

Al-Gharafa
  1. L 2-3
  2. W 4-2
  3. L 1-2
  4. D 0-0
  5. L 1-4
Esteghlal FC
  1. D 1-1
  2. W 3-0
  3. W 1-0
  4. D 0-0
  5. D 1-1

Head to head

  1. 16 Sept 2024 Esteghlal FC 3 Al-Gharafa 0 AFC Champions League

Bookmaker odds

Home2.89price rising, opened at 2.49
Draw3.62price falling, opened at 3.66
Away2.32price falling, opened at 2.63
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.17price rising, opened at 1.15
Under 1.53.94price falling, opened at 4.30
Over 2.51.74price rising, opened at 1.66
Under 2.52.10price falling, opened at 2.23
Over 3.52.70price rising, opened at 2.52
Under 3.51.36price falling, opened at 1.41
Both teams to score
Yes1.57price rising, opened at 1.52
No2.25price falling, opened at 2.37
Odd/Even
Odd1.84
Even1.84
Handicap
Home +0.251.74
Away -0.251.91
Methodology

Match analysis

Al-Gharafa have conceded in four of their last five and carry a defence rating of 5.9, below their own attack rating of 6.2. That leak, more than anything Esteghlal do, is why Superior has Over 1.5 goals here. At 1.22 it is an 81% chance.

Al Wakrah and Al Sadd both scored three or more past Al-Gharafa

Al-Gharafa lost 2-3 at Al Wakrah on 8 October and 1-4 at Al Sadd on 5 September, and even their 4-2 win over Al Mesaimeer let two in. Only the 0-0 with Lusail City stayed below two goals.

Esteghlal bring the tighter games

Esteghlal beat Paykan 1-0 and drew 0-0 at Aluminium Arak in early September, and they average 1.2 goals a game. Those two results are the real threat to this pick.

Esteghlal also put three past Al Sadd

They beat Al Sadd 3-0 on 14 September, the same side that scored four against Al-Gharafa, and drew 1-1 at Tractor Sazi on 8 October. Both teams come in on similar rest, and 1-1 is the most likely score, ahead of a 1-2 Esteghlal win.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

  • Goals: Over 1.5Won1.22
Compare bookmakers

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 1-111.0%Our score
  2. 0-111.0%
  3. 1-29.6%Alternative
  4. 1-08.2%
  5. 0-28.1%

Top five combined: 47.9%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeAl-GharafaxG1.21
AwayEsteghlal FCxG1.39
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
6.9%
8.2%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
1
11%
11%
6.8%
2.7%
0.7%
0.2%
<0.1%
2
8.1%
9.6%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
3
4.3%
4.5%
2.8%
0.9%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
0.2%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 51.5%48.5% No
Over 1.5 73.9%26.1% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 50.2%49.8% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 27.7%72.3% Under 3.5

Combos

  1. Esteghlal FC win and over 2.5 goals28.3%
  2. Draw and under 2.5 goals17.9%
  3. Al-Gharafa win and over 2.5 goals16.3%
  4. Al-Gharafa win and both teams score13.5%
Al-GharafaEsteghlal FC
Outcome markets
Win or draw52.7%71.0%
Draw no bet38.0%62.0%
Win to nil15.5%26.1%
Either team wins76.4%
Team goals
To score67.0%77.6%
Over 1.5 goals31.2%45.1%
Clean sheet22.4%33.0%

Today's acca

2 games, total odds 1.65
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