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USA vs Chile Prediction - 30 September 2026

FriendliesWorldFull time
USA
4-2
Chile

Our pick:Home win

64%Odds 1.58Won

Correct score1-0Alternative3-1

Bookmaker odds

Home1.48price falling, opened at 1.53
Draw4.42price rising, opened at 4.18
Away6.70price rising, opened at 6.20
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.19price falling, opened at 1.23
Under 1.53.76price rising, opened at 3.42
Over 2.51.74price falling, opened at 1.86
Under 2.52.08price rising, opened at 1.94
Over 3.52.66price falling, opened at 2.92
Under 3.51.37price rising, opened at 1.31
Both teams to score
Yes1.85price falling, opened at 1.90
No1.85price rising, opened at 1.80
Odd/Even
Odd1.85
Even1.83
Handicap
Home -1.252.02
Away +1.251.79

What is the prediction for USA vs Chile?

Our correct score is 1-0, then 3-1. USA are in better form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

The USA average 2.2 goals a game to Chile's 1.8, and they beat Peru 4-1 on 26 September while Chile lost 1-0 in Canada. Superior's pick for USA vs Chile, which kicks off on the evening of 29 September in the Americas (00:00 UTC on 30 September), is the USA win at 1.58, which Superior's model rates a 64% chance.

The USA have won three of their last four at home

Peru, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Australia all lost there, the last two 2-0 in the summer. Superior's expected goals for this match start from those scoring rates, weighed against what each defence concedes, and home advantage is part of the match context. Chile have lost two of their last three, 1-0 in Canada and 2-1 in Portugal, all three of them played away.

Chile carry the higher attack and defence ratings

Chile's attack rates 6.4 against a USA defence rated 5.8, and their defence rates 6.2 against a USA attack at 5.9, so on those two measures the visitors are the stronger side. The exception in that home run was a 4-1 defeat to Belgium in July. A draw loses this pick as surely as a Chile win.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

  • Correct score: 1-0Lost6.00
Compare bookmakers

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 1-010.9%Our score
  2. 1-110.5%
  3. 2-010.2%
  4. 2-19.9%
  5. 3-16.4%Alternative

Top five combined: 47.9%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeUSAxG1.91
AwayChilexG0.91
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.6%
11%
10%
6.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.7%
1
4.9%
11%
9.9%
6.4%
3.2%
1.3%
0.6%
2
2.3%
4.8%
4.4%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
0.3%
3
0.9%
1.6%
1.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 53.0%47.0% No
Over 1.5 78.6%21.4% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 55.5%44.5% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 33.6%66.4% Under 3.5

Combos

Combos

USA win and over 2.5 goals39.3%
USA win and both teams score27.6%
Chile win and over 2.5 goals10.7%
Draw and under 2.5 goals16.1%
Outcome markets
USA or draw82.0%
Chile or draw39.5%
Either team wins78.4%
Draw no bet: USA77.1%
Draw no bet: Chile22.9%
USA win to nil32.9%
Chile win to nil8.5%
Team goals
USA to score85.9%
Chile to score61.5%
USA over 1.5 goals57.5%
Chile over 1.5 goals24.7%
USA clean sheet38.5%
Chile clean sheet14.1%

Today's acca

2 games, total odds 1.61

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Prediction, preview and head to head: USA vs Chile