Plymouth vs Burton Albion Prediction - 26 September 2026
Match highlights
VIPForm
- W 5-1
- W 4-2
- W 3-0
- W 3-2
- L 0-2
- D 1-1
- D 2-2
- L 0-3
- D 2-2
- W 4-1
Head to head
- 4 Jan 2026 Plymouth 3 Burton Albion 0 League One
- 27 Sept 2025 Burton Albion 0 Plymouth 4 League One
Team averages before kickoff
For
- 15.6Total shots10.5
- 5.9Shots on target3.6
- 6.0Corner kicks3.4
- 1.0Cards1.8
Against
- 11.6Total shots14.5
- 3.0Shots on target4.8
- 4.5Corner kicks5.3
- 2.0Cards1.6
Match analysis
Superior's pick for Plymouth vs Burton Albion on 26 September is Plymouth on the +0.5 Asian handicap, which wins on a Plymouth win or a draw. It is priced at 1.20 and our model gives it 76 percent, because Plymouth arrive scoring 3.0 goals a game across their last five while Burton have won one of theirs.
Plymouth have scored 15 goals in five games
The model builds an expected scoring rate for each side from what it scores and concedes, then prices every plausible score. Plymouth's rate is fed by 5-1 against Crystal Palace's under-21s, 4-2 at Blackpool, 3-0 against Barnsley and 3-2 at Doncaster. Burton's scoring over the same stretch is well below that, and the only away game in their five was a 3-0 defeat at Oxford. Plymouth also won both meetings last season, 4-0 at Burton and 3-0 at home.
Plymouth have conceded in four of their last five
Only a Burton win beats this pick, so the danger sits in Plymouth's defence rather than their attack. They let in one against Palace's under-21s, two at Blackpool, two at Doncaster and two in a 2-0 defeat at Leicester on 1 September. Burton scored in four of their five, including 4-1 against AFC Wimbledon and two in each draw with Mansfield and Cambridge, so a 1-2 or 2-3 away win is the realistic route to losing it.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.50More League One predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 56%Ball possession44%
- 5Big chances2
- 13Total shots10
- 2Goalkeeper saves3
- 3Corner kicks4
- 11Fouls4
- 461Passes350
- 3Yellow cards3
Shots
- 3Shots on target3
- 5Shots off target3
- 5Blocked shots4
- 11Shots inside box8
- 2Shots outside box2
Attack
- 129Attacks71
- 9Key passes2
- 4/8 (50%)Dribbles4/14 (29%)
- 1Offsides2
Passes
- 358/461 (78%)Accurate passes250/350 (71%)
- 12/59 (20%)Long balls23/69 (33%)
- 9/24 (38%)Crosses1/19 (5%)
- 80Final third entries62
Defending
- 9/17 (53%)Tackles won7/14 (50%)
- 5Interceptions10
- 31Clearances35
- 11/34 (32%)Aerial duels23/34 (68%)
Other
- 4Free kicks11
- 37Throw-ins27
- 5Goal kicks14
More tips for this game
- Asian Handicap: Home +0.5
- Asian Handicap: Home +0.25
- Asian Handicap: Home +0
- Match Winner: Home
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-011.0%Our score
- 2-110.5%
- 2-010.3%
- 1-110.2%
- 3-07.0%
Top five combined: 49.0%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Plymouth win and over 2.5 goals41.2%
- Plymouth win and both teams score28.4%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals15.1%
- Burton Albion win and over 2.5 goals9.8%
| Plymouth | Burton Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 83.3% | 37.5% |
| Draw no bet | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| Win to nil | 34.1% | 8.0% |
| Either team wins | 79.2% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 87.1% | 61.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.3% | 24.2% |
| Clean sheet | 39.0% | 12.9% |
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | +16 | 29 | |
| 2 | 14 | +12 | 26 | |
| 3 | 14 | +6 | 24 | |
| 4 | 12 | +9 | 23 | |
| 5 | 14 | +2 | 23 | |
| 6 | 13 | +12 | 22 | |
| 7 | 13 | +2 | 22 | |
| 8 | 14 | 0 | 21 | |
| 9 | 13 | +8 | 20 | |
| 10 | 13 | +3 | 19 | |
| 11 | 13 | +2 | 19 | |
| 12 | 13 | +2 | 18 | |
| 13 | 13 | -2 | 18 | |
| 14 | 13 | +5 | 17 | |
| 15 | 14 | -3 | 17 | |
| 16 | 12 | +4 | 16 | |
| 17 | 12 | -1 | 14 | |
| 18 | 13 | -12 | 13 | |
| 19 | 12 | -4 | 12 | |
| 20 | 13 | -8 | 12 | |
| 21 | 14 | -11 | 11 | |
| 22 | 13 | -12 | 10 | |
| 23 | 12 | -10 | 9 | |
| 24 | 13 | -20 | 9 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 12 | 16 | 29 | |
| 2 | Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 26 | |
| 3 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 24 | |
| 4 | Oxford United | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 23 | |
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 23 | |
| 6 | Reading | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 22 | |
| 7 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 22 | |
| 8 | Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 21 | |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 20 | |
| 10 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 19 | |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 19 | |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 18 | |
| 13 | Wycombe | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 18 | |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 17 | |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 | |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 16 | |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 14 | |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 13 | |
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 12 | |
| 20 | Doncaster | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 | |
| 21 | Wigan | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 11 | |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 10 | |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 | |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 9 |