Kenya vs Eritrea Prediction - 26 September 2026
Match highlights
VIPForm
- W 4-0
- D 1-1
- L 0-8
- L 0-3
- W 1-0
- L 0-1
Match analysis
Eritrea's one match on record is a 1-0 home defeat by Niger in May 2025, and Superior expects goals to be hard to come by for them against Kenya on 26 September. The pick for Kenya vs Eritrea is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a model probability of 76 percent.
Eritrea failed to score in their only recorded match
With so little Eritrea data, the model leans on league-wide scoring baselines rather than trusting a single game, and it still projects a low total because Eritrea scored nothing in the one match it has. Kenya's own games in 2026 were a 4-0 win over Lesotho and a 1-1 draw away to Lesotho, and they won 1-0 in Burundi in October 2025.
Senegal beat Kenya 8-0 in November
Four goals loses this, and Kenya's last five include an 8-0 defeat in Senegal and a 3-0 loss in Ivory Coast, so their games have gone well past this line before. The more realistic threat comes from the other end: Kenya put four past Lesotho in June, and a 4-0 or a 3-1 would beat the pick on its own.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.66LostFrom our blog
More Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 68%Ball possession32%
- 29Total shots10
- 5Goalkeeper saves5
- 8Corner kicks0
- 12Fouls7
- 516Passes286
- 2Yellow cards1
Shots
- 6Shots on target6
- 17Shots off target2
- 6Blocked shots2
- 18Shots inside box4
- 11Shots outside box6
Attack
- 106Attacks51
- 4Offsides3
Passes
- 451/516 (87%)Accurate passes214/286 (75%)
Other
- 7Free kicks12
- 27Throw-ins10
- 3Goal kicks21
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Match Winner: Home
- Correct score: 2-0
- Correct score: 1-0
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-020.5%Our score
- 2-017.0%Alternative
- 0-012.3%
- 3-09.5%
- 1-18.8%
Top five combined: 68.1%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Kenya win and over 2.5 goals30.6%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals21.1%
- Kenya win and both teams score15.4%
- Eritrea win and over 2.5 goals2.7%
| Kenya | Eritrea | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 90.9% | 31.9% |
| Draw no bet | 88.2% | 11.8% |
| Win to nil | 52.7% | 6.6% |
| Either team wins | 77.2% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 81.1% | 35.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49.6% | 7.0% |
| Clean sheet | 65.0% | 18.9% |