Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction - 26 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.23Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 2-3
- Over 1.5 goals
- 4/5Toluca · last 5 games
Form
- L 0-1
- L 0-2
- W 4-3
- W 1-0
- W 3-1
- L 2-3
- W 1-0
- W 5-2
- W 2-0
- W 2-0
Head to head
- 7 Feb 2026 Toluca 1 Cruz Azul 1 Liga MX
- 24 Aug 2025 Cruz Azul 1 Toluca 0 Liga MX
Team averages before kickoff
For
- 17.9Total shots17.8
- 5.9Shots on target5.7
- 5.7Corner kicks5.2
- 1.9Cards1.9
Against
- 13.3Total shots12.8
- 4.3Shots on target2.6
- 5.1Corner kicks7.0
- 2.2Cards2.7
Match analysis
Cruz Azul and Toluca have met three times since April 2025, and the 2-2 and 1-1 among them would both have landed Over 1.5 goals, Superior's pick for their meeting on 26 September. At 1.23 the model rates it at 74 percent, driven by a Toluca side with 12 goals in its last five.
Two of the last three meetings reached two goals
The recent meetings finished 2-2 in April 2025, 1-0 to Cruz Azul in August 2025 and 1-1 in February, with Toluca at home for the draws. The model builds its projection from both teams' measured scoring, and both rates are live: Toluca beat Atlas 5-2 and Monterrey 2-0 this month, while Cruz Azul put four past Club America in a 4-3 win and three past Necaxa.
Cruz Azul have failed to score in their last two
Cruz Azul lost 1-0 at Monterrey on 20 September and 2-0 to Inter Miami three days earlier, and the 1-0 in August 2025 is the exact shape that loses this pick. If Cruz Azul stay blank again, a 0-1 Toluca win or a 0-0 is enough to beat it. Toluca did concede three at home to Santos Laguna last time out, which is the counterweight to that worry.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.50More Liga MX predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 49%Ball possession51%
- 1.55Expected goals (xG)1.95
- 2Big chances2
- 17Total shots18
- 4Goalkeeper saves4
- 4Corner kicks5
- 14Fouls16
- 333Passes352
- 4Yellow cards1
Shots
- 7Shots on target7
- 7Shots off target9
- 3Blocked shots2
- 10Shots inside box10
- 7Shots outside box8
Attack
- 95Attacks73
- 0.92Expected assists (xA)0.55
- 11Key passes12
- 9/20 (45%)Dribbles6/9 (67%)
- 3Offsides3
Passes
- 251/333 (75%)Accurate passes282/352 (80%)
- 23/54 (43%)Long balls26/57 (46%)
- 4/22 (18%)Crosses3/16 (19%)
- 59Final third entries52
Defending
- 7/12 (58%)Tackles won16/22 (73%)
- 10Interceptions18
- 14Clearances27
- 15/24 (63%)Aerial duels9/24 (38%)
Other
- 16Free kicks13
- 23Throw-ins13
- 11Goal kicks6
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-111.6%Our score
- 1-29.0%
- 2-18.4%
- 0-17.8%
- 1-07.5%
Top five combined: 44.3%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Toluca win and over 2.5 goals26.0%
- Cruz Azul win and over 2.5 goals22.4%
- Cruz Azul win and both teams score18.6%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals17.3%
| Cruz Azul | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 60.2% | 64.9% |
| Draw no bet | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Win to nil | 16.5% | 18.8% |
| Either team wins | 74.8% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 75.5% | 77.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 44.6% |
| Clean sheet | 22.2% | 24.5% |
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | +15 | 29 | ||
| 2 | 15 | +11 | 29 | ||
| 3 | 15 | +10 | 29 | ||
| 4 | 15 | 0 | 27 | ||
| 5 | 15 | +10 | 24 | ||
| 6 | 15 | +4 | 22 | ||
| 7 | 15 | +2 | 22 | ||
| 8 | 15 | +1 | 22 | ||
| 9 | 14 | +5 | 21 | ||
| 10 | 15 | -2 | 20 | ||
| 11 | 14 | -3 | 20 | ||
| 12 | 15 | +6 | 19 | ||
| 13 | 15 | -4 | 19 | ||
| 14 | 15 | -6 | 16 | ||
| 15 | 15 | -7 | 15 | ||
| 16 | 15 | -8 | 14 | ||
| 17 | 15 | -12 | 10 | ||
| 18 | 15 | -22 | 8 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 29 | WDW |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 29 | DWL |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 29 | LWW |
| 4 | Atlas | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 | LWW |
| 5 | Toluca | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 24 | WLW |
| 6 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 | DWW |
| 7 | Leon | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 22 | WLL |
| 8 | Santos Laguna | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 22 | LLL |
| 9 | Monterrey | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 21 | WLW |
| 10 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 | WWL |
| 11 | Club Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 | WWL |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 19 | LLW |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 | DDL |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 | DLW |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 15 | LDL |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 14 | WDL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 10 | LWW |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 8 | LLL |