Japan vs Uruguay Prediction - 24 September 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
Odds 1.28Lost
- Correct score
- 1-0
- Alternative
- 2-0
- Under 3.5 goals
- 4/5Uruguay · last 5 games
Match highlights
VIPForm
- L 1-2
- D 1-1
- W 4-0
- D 2-2
- W 1-0
- L 0-1
- D 2-2
- D 1-1
- D 0-0
- D 1-1
Match analysis
Uruguay have drawn four of their last five matches without a single win, a settled, low-event run that anchors Superior's Under 3.5 goals pick for Japan vs Uruguay on 24 September. At 1.28, with 75 percent model confidence, it also reflects Japan carrying the lowest attack and defence ratings, 5.2 and 5.3, of any side in this batch.
Japan's ratings are the lowest on tonight's board
An attack rating of 5.2 and a defence rating of 5.3 put Japan below every other side covered here, a sign of a team generating less separation from opponents than usual on both ends of the pitch. That flatter profile fits a low-scoring friendly more than a high-event one.
Uruguay have drawn four of their last five matches
The away side's recent form is remarkably level: four draws, including a 0-0 and separate 1-1 and 2-2 scorelines, against a single defeat. Uruguay's own scoring rate of 0.8 goals a game matches that pattern directly, and a friendly carries none of the pressure that might push a settled side to open the game up.
Japan have scored four goals in a single match this run
The clearest threat to this total is Japan's own capability, shown in a 4-0 win earlier in their last five. If that finishing returns against a Uruguay side that has looked more concerned with control than goals lately, four goals from Japan alone would be enough to beat this line without Uruguay scoring at all.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.66LostMore Friendlies predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 47%Ball possession53%
- 2Total shots6
- 5Goalkeeper saves0
- 2Corner kicks4
- 7Fouls3
- 224Passes226
- 2Yellow cards2
Shots
- 1Shots on target5
- 1Shots off target1
- 0Shots inside box6
- 3Shots outside box3
Attack
- 52Attacks49
- 0Offsides1
Passes
- 193/224 (86%)Accurate passes176/226 (78%)
Other
- 11Free kicks12
- 11Throw-ins18
- 8Goal kicks8
More tips for this game
- Asian Handicap: Home +0.25
- Asian Handicap: Home +0
- Match Winner: Home
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Correct score: 1-0
- Correct score: 2-0
VIP
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-014.5%Our score
- 2-011.9%Alternative
- 1-111.5%
- 0-09.0%
- 2-18.8%
Top five combined: 55.7%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Japan win and over 2.5 goals29.3%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals20.6%
- Japan win and both teams score19.6%
- Uruguay win and over 2.5 goals9.7%
| Japan | Uruguay | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 80.4% | 44.3% |
| Draw no bet | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| Win to nil | 36.1% | 11.3% |
| Either team wins | 75.3% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 79.7% | 54.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 47.0% | 20.2% |
| Clean sheet | 45.2% | 20.3% |