Guimaraes vs Moreirense Prediction - 20 September 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
Odds 1.34Won
- Correct score
- 1-0
- Alternative
- 1-1
- Under 3.5 goals
- 4/5Guimaraes · last 5 games
Match highlights
PremiumForm
- L 1-2
- D 0-0
- L 0-1
- W 1-0
- L 2-3
- W 3-1
- L 0-4
- L 1-2
- W 1-0
- L 0-4
Head to head
- 30 Jan 2026 Guimaraes 1 Moreirense 0 Primeira Liga
- 23 Aug 2025 Moreirense 2 Guimaraes 0 Primeira Liga
Match analysis
Neither Guimaraes nor Moreirense averages a goal a game this season, and that scarcity is why Superior's model keeps its 20 September projection tight at 1-0, with 1-1 next in line. Guimaraes' own home matches have produced just one goal in two of their last three.
Both sides average under a goal a game
Guimaraes are averaging 0.8 goals scored a game and Moreirense 1.0, a combined rate that points toward a low-scoring finish, and Guimaraes' last three home matches have produced a 0-0, a 1-0 and a loss in which they scored only once. Moreirense have shipped four goals twice in their last five, against Benfica and Arouca, but haven't been prolific themselves outside those blowout defeats, scoring more than once in only one of their last five.
Moreirense have won two of the last three meetings
Guimaraes won the reverse fixture 1-0 in January, the shape Superior's model repeats here, but Moreirense have won two of the last three meetings between these sides, including a 2-0 win in August last year. If Moreirense's occasional finishing edge from that game resurfaces, the 1-1 alternative is a realistic outcome rather than a home win to nil.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.50More Primeira Liga predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 66%Ball possession34%
- 1.07Expected goals (xG)0.52
- 2Big chances2
- 16Total shots7
- 2Goalkeeper saves2
- 3Corner kicks0
- 10Fouls13
- 650Passes332
Shots
- 5Shots on target3
- 8Shots off target4
- 3Blocked shots0
- 11Shots inside box4
- 5Shots outside box3
Attack
- 146Attacks71
- 1.05Expected assists (xA)0.15
- 12Key passes7
- 11/28 (39%)Dribbles6/14 (43%)
- 1Offsides0
Passes
- 563/650 (87%)Accurate passes251/332 (76%)
- 27/44 (61%)Long balls22/72 (31%)
- 8/22 (36%)Crosses1/8 (13%)
- 103Final third entries33
Defending
- 13/20 (65%)Tackles won21/29 (72%)
- 6Interceptions12
- 15Clearances48
- 13/22 (59%)Aerial duels9/22 (41%)
Other
- 12Free kicks10
- 31Throw-ins13
- 7Goal kicks10
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Correct score: 1-1
- Correct score: 1-0
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-013.1%Our score
- 1-111.3%Alternative
- 2-011.0%
- 2-110.3%
- 0-07.4%
Top five combined: 53.1%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Guimaraes win and over 2.5 goals33.8%
- Guimaraes win and both teams score23.5%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals18.7%
- Moreirense win and over 2.5 goals9.5%
| Guimaraes | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 81.6% | 42.1% |
| Draw no bet | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| Win to nil | 34.3% | 10.0% |
| Either team wins | 76.2% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 82.6% | 58.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51.5% | 21.8% |
| Clean sheet | 41.8% | 17.4% |
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +21 | 30 | |
| 2 | 9 | +18 | 22 | |
| 3 | 10 | +12 | 21 | |
| 4 | 10 | +9 | 21 | |
| 5 | 10 | +6 | 20 | |
| 6 | 10 | +3 | 20 | |
| 7 | 9 | +1 | 14 | |
| 8 | 10 | +1 | 14 | |
| 9 | 10 | -4 | 14 | |
| 10 | 9 | 0 | 11 | |
| 11 | 10 | 0 | 10 | |
| 12 | 10 | -4 | 10 | |
| 13 | 9 | 0 | 8 | |
| 14 | 10 | -12 | 8 | |
| 15 | 10 | -9 | 7 | |
| 16 | 10 | -14 | 7 | |
| 17 | 10 | -14 | 7 | |
| 18 | 10 | -14 | 2 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 30 | |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 22 | |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 21 | |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 21 | |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 20 | |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14 | |
| 8 | SC Braga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 14 | |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 | |
| 10 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 | |
| 11 | Famalicao | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 | |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 | |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 | |
| 14 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 | |
| 15 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 | |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 | |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 7 | |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |