Merthyr Town vs Truro City Prediction - September 19, 2026

FA CupEnglandFull time
Merthyr Town
1:1
Truro City
Correct scoreOur pick
1-1

Alternative:2-1

Goals: Over 1.51.27Won

Bookmaker odds

Home2.66price rising, opened at 2.58
Draw3.39price rising, opened at 3.25
Away2.50price rising, opened at 2.36

Market move since Sep 19. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.25price rising, opened at 1.24
Under 1.53.75price rising, opened at 3.34
Over 2.51.81price falling, opened at 1.83
Under 2.52.00price rising, opened at 1.83
Over 3.52.82price falling, opened at 3.08
Under 3.51.40price rising, opened at 1.28
Both teams to score
Yes1.68price rising, opened at 1.66
No2.11price rising, opened at 2.07
Odd/Even
Odd1.93price rising, opened at 1.83
Even1.82price falling, opened at 1.83
Handicap
Home +01.96price rising, opened at 1.90
Away +01.84price rising, opened at 1.76

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Truro City?

The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 2-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Truro City are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-8Methodology

Why this prediction

  • Merthyr Town and Truro City average 3.2 goals a match between them, against a line of 1.5.

Markets to consider

Best price we found across books
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Premium model depth

Unlocked after full time

Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 1-110.3%Our score
  2. 2-19.3%Alternative
  3. 1-08.4%
  4. 2-07.2%
  5. 1-27.2%

Top five combined: 42.4%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeMerthyr TownxG1.69
AwayTruro CityxG1.28
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.0%
8.4%
7.2%
4.2%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
1
6.2%
10%
9.3%
5.3%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
2
4.1%
7.2%
5.9%
3.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
3
2.0%
3.1%
2.7%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
<0.1%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 58.8%41.2% No
Over 1.5 80.4%19.6% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 58.7%41.3% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 36.1%63.9% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Merthyr Town win and over 2.5 goals32.1%
Merthyr Town win and both teams score24.8%
Truro City win and over 2.5 goals19.1%
Draw and under 2.5 goals15.4%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Merthyr Town or draw70.6%
Truro City or draw52.2%
Either team wins77.2%
Draw no bet: Merthyr Town61.9%
Draw no bet: Truro City38.1%
Merthyr Town win to nil22.9%
Truro City win to nil13.3%
Team goals
Merthyr Town to score81.7%
Truro City to score72.0%
Merthyr Town over 1.5 goals51.3%
Truro City over 1.5 goals37.3%
Merthyr Town clean sheet28.0%
Truro City clean sheet18.3%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Today's acca

2 selections at 1.61

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Prediction, preview and head to head: Merthyr Town vs Truro City