Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin Prediction - September 10, 2026

Copa ColombiaColombiaFull time
Deportivo Pasto
1:4
Independiente Medellin
Projected scoreOur pick
1-1

Alternative:1-2

Goals: Over 1.51.38Won

Bookmaker odds

Home3.65price rising, opened at 3.60
Draw3.21price rising, opened at 3.04
Away2.07price rising, opened at 2.03

Market move since Sep 10. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.31price falling, opened at 1.32
Under 1.53.25price rising, opened at 2.88
Over 2.52.21price rising, opened at 2.08
Under 2.51.67
Over 3.53.71price rising, opened at 3.58
Under 3.51.25price rising, opened at 1.21
Both teams to score
Yes1.87price rising, opened at 1.83
No1.87price rising, opened at 1.86
Odd/Even
Odd1.93price rising, opened at 1.89
Even1.82price rising, opened at 1.77
Handicap
Home +0.252.03price rising, opened at 1.94
Away -0.251.78price rising, opened at 1.72

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin?

The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 1-2 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Independiente Medellin are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-4Methodology

Match highlights

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Match analysis

Pasto and Medellin carry almost identical attack and defence ratings on Superior's scale, yet Medellin have scored more than twice as often this season, and Superior projects that gap to settle the 10 September Copa Colombia tie at 1-1, with a 1-2 Medellin win as the alternative. Pasto haven't won any of their last five matches, while Medellin have won four of their own.

Medellin score more than twice as often despite similar ratings

Pasto's attack rating of 6.1 and Medellin's defence rating of 6.2 are close enough to call even, and the same is true in reverse, Pasto's defence at 6.6 against Medellin's attack at 6.6. What separates them is actual output: Medellin average 1.8 goals a game to Pasto's 0.8, and Medellin have won four of their last five, including a 3-2 away win and a 3-0 away win. Pasto's own home form has produced zero wins in five, with three defeats in that run.

Pasto have beaten Medellin before in this exact fixture

The head-to-head isn't one-sided: Pasto won the corresponding home meeting 1-0 in January, and Medellin's away form includes a 0-1 loss of their own. If Pasto's rating parity translates into an actual result rather than another home defeat, a repeat of that January scoreline is the live alternative to Medellin controlling the game, and it's why the projection settles on a draw rather than a Medellin win outright.

Written by the Superior Football Desk · Text drafted by claude-sonnet-5

AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.

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Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 1-111.4%Projected
  2. 1-29.5%Alternative
  3. 0-19.4%
  4. 0-27.8%
  5. 2-16.9%

Top five combined: 45.0%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeDeportivo PastoxG1.21
AwayIndependiente MedellinxG1.66
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.6%
6.8%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
9.4%
11%
6.9%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
2
7.8%
9.5%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
3
4.3%
5.2%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
4
1.8%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
5
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
6+
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 56.9%43.1% No
Over 1.5 78.1%21.9% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 54.8%45.2% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 32.5%67.5% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Deportivo Pasto win and over 2.5 goals16.9%
Deportivo Pasto win and both teams score14.6%
Independiente Medellin win and over 2.5 goals30.7%
Draw and under 2.5 goals17.0%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Deportivo Pasto or draw52.1%
Independiente Medellin or draw72.1%
Either team wins75.8%
Draw no bet: Deportivo Pasto36.8%
Draw no bet: Independiente Medellin63.2%
Deportivo Pasto win to nil13.3%
Independiente Medellin win to nil24.1%
Team goals
Deportivo Pasto to score70.2%
Independiente Medellin to score81.0%
Deportivo Pasto over 1.5 goals34.2%
Independiente Medellin over 1.5 goals49.5%
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet19.0%
Independiente Medellin clean sheet29.8%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

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Today's acca

2 selections at 1.83

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Prediction, preview and head to head: Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin
Head to Head

Head to Head

Independiente Medellin
3 - 2
Deportivo Pasto
July 25, 2026
Deportivo Pasto
1 - 0
Independiente Medellin
January 18, 2026
Deportivo Pasto
1 - 2
Independiente Medellin
August 19, 2025
Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
July 25, 2026Independiente Medellin3 - 2Deportivo Pasto
January 18, 2026Deportivo Pasto1 - 0Independiente Medellin
August 19, 2025Deportivo Pasto1 - 2Independiente Medellin