Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin Prediction - 10 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.38Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 1-2
- Over 1.5 goals
- 4/5Deportivo Pasto · last 5 games
Match highlights
PremiumForm
- D 2-2
- L 1-2
- D 1-1
- L 0-1
- L 0-2
- W 3-0
- W 2-1
- L 0-1
- W 3-2
- W 1-0
Head to head
- 25 Jul 2026 Independiente Medellin 3 Deportivo Pasto 2 Primera A
- 18 Jan 2026 Deportivo Pasto 1 Independiente Medellin 0 Primera A
- 19 Aug 2025 Deportivo Pasto 1 Independiente Medellin 2 Primera A
Match analysis
Pasto and Medellin carry almost identical attack and defence ratings on Superior's scale, yet Medellin have scored more than twice as often this season, and Superior projects that gap to settle the 10 September Copa Colombia tie at 1-1, with a 1-2 Medellin win as the alternative. Pasto haven't won any of their last five matches, while Medellin have won four of their own.
Medellin score more than twice as often despite similar ratings
Pasto's attack rating of 6.1 and Medellin's defence rating of 6.2 are close enough to call even, and the same is true in reverse, Pasto's defence at 6.6 against Medellin's attack at 6.6. What separates them is actual output: Medellin average 1.8 goals a game to Pasto's 0.8, and Medellin have won four of their last five, including a 3-2 away win and a 3-0 away win. Pasto's own home form has produced zero wins in five, with three defeats in that run.
Pasto have beaten Medellin before in this exact fixture
The head-to-head isn't one-sided: Pasto won the corresponding home meeting 1-0 in January, and Medellin's away form includes a 0-1 loss of their own. If Pasto's rating parity translates into an actual result rather than another home defeat, a repeat of that January scoreline is the live alternative to Medellin controlling the game, and it's why the projection settles on a draw rather than a Medellin win outright.
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.77More Copa Colombia predictions
Match stats
Match overview
- 6Corner kicks3
- 1Yellow cards1
Shots
- 3Shots on target6
- 14Shots off target2
Attack
- 120Attacks88
- 0Offsides3
Other
- 10Free kicks15
- 14Throw-ins10
- 4Goal kicks11
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
- Correct score: 1-1
- Correct score: 1-2
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-111.4%Our score
- 1-29.5%Alternative
- 0-19.4%
- 0-27.8%
- 2-16.9%
Top five combined: 45.0%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Independiente Medellin win and over 2.5 goals30.7%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals17.0%
- Deportivo Pasto win and over 2.5 goals16.9%
- Deportivo Pasto win and both teams score14.6%
| Deportivo Pasto | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 52.1% | 72.1% |
| Draw no bet | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| Win to nil | 13.3% | 24.1% |
| Either team wins | 75.8% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 70.2% | 81.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 49.5% |
| Clean sheet | 19.0% | 29.8% |