Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction - 1 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.35Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 2-1
- Over 1.5 goals
- 4/5Portsmouth · last 5 games
Form
- L 1-2
- W 3-1
- L 1-3
- L 1-3
- D 0-0
- L 0-3
- D 2-2
- L 1-2
- L 1-2
- L 0-1
Head to head
- 16 Mar 2026 Portsmouth 0 Derby 1 Championship
- 20 Dec 2025 Derby 1 Portsmouth 1 Championship
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
Three meetings, three one-goal margins: that is the recent head-to-head between Portsmouth and Derby, and it lines up with Superior's projection for their Championship fixture on 1 September. The model backs a 1-1 draw, with 2-1 the alternate score, in a match where both sides' underlying numbers point to another tight result.
None of the last three meetings between these sides has been decided by more than one goal
A 0-1 home loss and two draws, 1-1 and 2-2, make up Portsmouth's recent head-to-head record against Derby, and both sides' underlying numbers point to another tight game. Derby's attack rating of 6.4 is a touch higher than Portsmouth's defence rating of 6.3, a narrow gap that fits a fixture with a 1.2 to 1.4 split in goals scored per game rather than anything more one-sided.
Portsmouth's own last five includes two defeats by two clear goals
A pair of 1-3 losses in Portsmouth's recent form show their defence can be opened up more heavily than the tight head-to-head history suggests, and Derby have scored three goals as recently as their own last five too. LOSES IF: either side wins by two or more goals, since that would break both the tight scoreline projected and the pattern set by the last three meetings.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
- Correct score: 1-1
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-111.6%Our score
- 2-18.6%Alternative
- 1-08.3%
- 1-28.1%
- 0-17.8%
Top five combined: 44.4%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Portsmouth win and over 2.5 goals25.1%
- Derby win and over 2.5 goals22.4%
- Portsmouth win and both teams score20.5%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals17.1%
| Portsmouth | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 64.3% | 60.5% |
| Draw no bet | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Win to nil | 19.0% | 17.0% |
| Either team wins | 75.2% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 77.5% | 75.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 40.9% |
| Clean sheet | 24.6% | 22.5% |
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.61
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | +10 | 25 | |
| 2 | 11 | +8 | 23 | |
| 3 | 11 | +18 | 22 | |
| 4 | 11 | +9 | 20 | |
| 5 | 11 | +3 | 20 | |
| 6 | 11 | +2 | 19 | |
| 7 | 11 | +3 | 18 | |
| 8 | 11 | +11 | 17 | |
| 9 | 11 | +3 | 17 | |
| 10 | 11 | +1 | 15 | |
| 11 | 11 | +1 | 15 | |
| 12 | 11 | 0 | 15 | |
| 13 | 11 | 0 | 15 | |
| 14 | 11 | -1 | 14 | |
| 15 | 11 | -3 | 14 | |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | 14 | |
| 17 | 12 | -7 | 14 | |
| 18 | 11 | -10 | 12 | |
| 19 | 11 | +1 | 11 | |
| 20 | 11 | -9 | 11 | |
| 21 | 11 | -4 | 9 | |
| 22 | 11 | -5 | 8 | |
| 23 | 11 | -11 | 6 | |
| 24 | 11 | -15 | 4 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 25 | |
| 2 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 23 | |
| 3 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 | |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | |
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 | |
| 7 | Wolves | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 18 | |
| 8 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 17 | |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 17 | |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 15 | |
| 11 | Sheffield United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 15 | |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 15 | |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 | |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 | |
| 15 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 14 | |
| 16 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 | |
| 17 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 14 | |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 12 | |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 11 | |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 | |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 9 | |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 |