Deportes Tolima vs Chico Prediction - 3 October 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
76%Odds 1.29
Picked at 1.29 · now 1.27
Correct score2-0Alternative2-1
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Chico?
Our correct score is 2-0, then 2-1. Chico are in better form heading into this match.
Match analysis
Superior backs Over 1.5 goals at 1.29 in Deportes Tolima vs Chico on 3 October, and the recent meetings show the shape of it: they finished 4-1, 4-0 and 1-1. The model gives two or more goals a 76 percent probability, with a 2-0 Tolima win as the correct score.
Tolima won 4-1 and 4-0 in two of the last three meetings
Tolima won 4-1 at Chico in April 2025 and 4-0 at home that September, and the March meeting ended 1-1, so every recent game between them cleared this line. That history is context. What the model measures is scoring and conceding, and Chico's own last five all carried two goals or more, from a 3-0 home win to a 3-0 defeat at Millonarios. Superior checks a thin scoring sample against the league's baseline before pricing the grid, and on these rates a two-goal game is the likelier shape.
Tolima lost 1-0 at Once Caldas and 1-0 at Santa Fe
Tolima's attack is the soft spot: back-to-back 1-0 defeats away at Once Caldas and Santa Fe, and an average of 1.0 goal a game across the last five. A 1-0 either way, or a 0-0, loses the bet, and another of those quiet afternoons from Tolima is the realistic route to it.
More tips for this game
- Match Winner: Home
- Correct score: 2-0
Today's acca
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Formations
Expected formations
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 March 2026 | Chico | 1 - 1 | Deportes Tolima |
| 15 September 2025 | Deportes Tolima | 4 - 0 | Chico |
| 2 April 2025 | Chico | 1 - 4 | Deportes Tolima |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | +20 | 40 | ||
| 2 | 19 | +7 | 35 | ||
| 3 | 19 | +4 | 34 | ||
| 4 | 19 | +10 | 33 | ||
| 5 | 19 | +9 | 33 | ||
| 6 | 19 | +10 | 31 | ||
| 7 | 19 | +7 | 29 | ||
| 8 | 19 | 0 | 28 | ||
| 8 | 19 | 0 | 28 | ||
| 9 | 19 | +4 | 27 | ||
| 10 | 19 | +8 | 26 | ||
| 11 | 19 | +2 | 26 | ||
| 12 | 19 | -5 | 26 | ||
| 12 | 19 | -5 | 26 | ||
| 13 | 19 | +6 | 23 | ||
| 14 | 19 | -3 | 22 | ||
| 15 | 19 | -5 | 22 | ||
| 16 | 19 | -13 | 18 | ||
| 17 | 19 | -14 | 17 | ||
| 17 | 19 | -14 | 17 | ||
| 18 | 19 | -17 | 17 | ||
| 19 | 19 | -13 | 16 | ||
| 19 | 19 | -13 | 16 | ||
| 20 | 19 | -17 | 10 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 40 | WWLWW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 35 | LLLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 34 | LLLLL |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 33 | WWLDW |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 33 | DWDLW |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 31 | WWLLW |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 29 | DLLDW |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 | LLLLW |
| 8 | La Equidad FC | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 | |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 27 | LWDWL |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 26 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 26 | WWLWW |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 | WWWDL |
| 12 | Rionegro Aguilas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 | |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 23 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 | DWLDL |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 | DDWLL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 | LLWDL |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 | |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 | LWLLW |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 | LLDLW |
| 19 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 | |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 | DLLWL |