Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction - 11 October 2026
Our pick:Home +0.5
81%Odds 1.19Won
Correct score2-1Alternative4-0
Form
- D 2-2
- W 3-1
- W 2-1
- W 3-1
- W 2-1
- L 0-5
- D 1-1
- D 1-1
- L 0-1
- W 4-3
Head to head
- 10 May 2026 Hertha BSC 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 Bundesliga 2
- 12 Dec 2025 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 Hertha BSC 3 Bundesliga 2
- 4 May 2025 Hertha BSC 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 Bundesliga 2
Match analysis
Hertha BSC are unbeaten in three meetings with Greuther Fürth, winning 2-1 and 1-0 at home and drawing 3-3 away. Superior's position for Hertha BSC vs Greuther Fürth on 11 October is Hertha on the +0.5 Asian handicap at 1.19, which pays on a Hertha win or a draw, and the model gives it 81% with a 2-1 correct score.
Hertha have not lost in their last five
The run reads 2-2 at Augsburg, then wins at Hertha Zehlendorf, Dynamo Dresden and VfL Osnabrück and at home to Magdeburg, with Hertha scoring 2.4 goals a game. The model builds each side's expected scoring rate from its scoring and conceding record and prices the full score grid, and Hertha's rate sits well clear of Fürth's, which is why most of that grid falls on Hertha's side of the draw.
Fürth carry the better defence and attack ratings
Only a Fürth win loses this bet, and the ratings give them a case: a 6.9 defence rating against Hertha's 6.4 attack, and a 6.6 attack rating against Hertha's 6.3 defence. Fürth also won 4-3 at Energie Cottbus in August. Against that, they lost 0-5 at VfB Stuttgart and 0-1 to Heidenheim inside their last five.
More tips for this game
- Asian Handicap: Home +0.5
- Asian Handicap: Home +0.25
- Asian Handicap: Home +0
- Goals: Over 2.5
- Match Winner: Home
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 2-110.0%Our score
- 2-08.6%
- 1-18.5%
- 1-08.0%
- 3-17.4%
Top five combined: 42.5%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Hertha BSC win and over 2.5 goals46.5%
- Hertha BSC win and both teams score33.1%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals12.0%
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth win and over 2.5 goals11.8%
| Hertha BSC | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 82.1% | 36.9% |
| Draw no bet | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| Win to nil | 30.0% | 7.4% |
| Either team wins | 81.0% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 89.0% | 66.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | 29.9% |
| Clean sheet | 33.6% | 11.0% |
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.65
Formations
Confirmed formations
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +11 | 22 | |
| 2 | 8 | +10 | 18 | |
| 3 | 7 | +2 | 14 | |
| 4 | 7 | +5 | 13 | |
| 5 | 7 | +7 | 12 | |
| 6 | 7 | +2 | 12 | |
| 7 | 7 | +2 | 10 | |
| 8 | 8 | -1 | 9 | |
| 9 | 7 | -1 | 8 | |
| 10 | 7 | -3 | 8 | |
| 11 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| 12 | 7 | -2 | 7 | |
| 13 | 7 | -5 | 7 | |
| 14 | 7 | -6 | 7 | |
| 15 | 7 | -3 | 6 | |
| 16 | 8 | -4 | 5 | |
| 17 | 7 | -6 | 5 | |
| 18 | 7 | -8 | 5 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 18 | |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 14 | |
| 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 13 | |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 12 | |
| 6 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 10 | |
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 | |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 | |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 | |
| 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 7 | |
| 12 | VfL Bochum | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 | |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | |
| 14 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 | |
| 15 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 | |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 | |
| 18 | Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |