Excelsior vs Groningen Prediction - 11 October 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
84%Odds 1.19Won
Correct score1-1Alternative3-2
Form
- D 2-2
- L 1-2
- D 2-2
- W 3-0
- W 2-1
- W 3-0
- D 1-1
- D 2-2
- L 2-3
- L 1-5
Head to head
- 2 May 2026 Groningen 2 Excelsior 3 Eredivisie
- 5 Dec 2025 Excelsior 0 Groningen 2 Eredivisie
- 16 Jan 2024 Excelsior 0 Groningen 2 KNVB Beker
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
At 2.0 and 1.8 goals a game, Excelsior and Groningen bring 3.8 between them to a match that needs only two. Superior has taken Over 1.5 goals in Excelsior vs Groningen on 11 October at 1.19, and its model gives the pick an 84% chance, with 1-1 as the correct score.
Excelsior's last five games all produced at least three goals
Superior's model sets an expected scoring rate for each team from its scoring and conceding record, measured against the Eredivisie baseline, and prices every scoreline from there. The two rates sit close together, which is why both the 1-1 and the 3-2 alternative clear the line. Excelsior drew 2-2 at Ajax and 2-2 at NEC and won 3-0 at Willem II. Groningen beat PEC Zwolle 3-0 and lost 1-5 at PSV Eindhoven.
Groningen's 1-1 at Go Ahead Eagles came within a goal of beating this pick
Only a 0-0 or a 1-0 either way loses here. Neither side has produced that in its last five, but Groningen's 1-1 at Go Ahead Eagles on 12 September finished on exactly two. The two meetings last season went 3-2 to Excelsior away and 0-2 against them at home, and a repeat of either would still land.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-110.6%Our score
- 2-18.9%
- 1-08.1%
- 1-27.5%
- 2-06.6%
Top five combined: 41.7%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Excelsior win and over 2.5 goals30.3%
- Excelsior win and both teams score23.9%
- Groningen win and over 2.5 goals20.9%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals15.4%
| Excelsior | Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 68.4% | 55.1% |
| Draw no bet | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| Win to nil | 21.0% | 14.1% |
| Either team wins | 76.5% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 81.0% | 74.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49.8% | 40.1% |
| Clean sheet | 25.9% | 19.0% |
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.65
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +20 | 20 | |
| 2 | 8 | +16 | 19 | |
| 3 | 8 | +10 | 19 | |
| 4 | 8 | +8 | 17 | |
| 5 | 8 | +12 | 15 | |
| 6 | 8 | +6 | 14 | |
| 7 | 8 | -1 | 14 | |
| 8 | 9 | +4 | 12 | |
| 9 | 8 | +2 | 11 | |
| 10 | 9 | -2 | 11 | |
| 11 | 8 | -1 | 9 | |
| 12 | 8 | -8 | 8 | |
| 13 | 8 | -11 | 8 | |
| 14 | 8 | -7 | 6 | |
| 15 | 8 | -7 | 6 | |
| 16 | 8 | -15 | 4 | |
| 17 | 8 | -10 | 3 | |
| 18 | 8 | -16 | 2 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 20 | |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 19 | |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 | |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 17 | |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 15 | |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 14 | |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 | |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 12 | |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 11 | |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 | |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 | |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 | |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 8 | |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 6 | |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 | |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 | |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 | |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 2 |