Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction - 10 October 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
83%Odds 1.21
Correct score0-1Alternative1-1
Form
- W 2-1
- L 1-4
- D 0-0
- L 0-1
- L 0-2
- D 0-0
- W 2-1
- W 4-0
- D 1-1
- W 1-0
Head to head
- 18 Apr 2026 Casa Pia 0 Santa Clara 0 Primeira Liga
- 6 Dec 2025 Santa Clara 1 Casa Pia 0 Primeira Liga
Match analysis
Add Casa Pia's 0.6 goals a game to Santa Clara's 1.6 and Casa Pia vs Santa Clara on 10 October comes to 2.2, well short of the four goals that would beat Superior's Under 3.5 pick. It is priced at 1.21, and the model gives it an 83 percent chance with 0-1 to Santa Clara as the correct score.
Santa Clara have conceded twice in five games
Superior's expected goals for each side are built from what it scores and what the opponent concedes, and Santa Clara's back line drags the home figure down. They kept three clean sheets in their last five, including 0-0 with SC Braga on 20 September. Casa Pia have scored three goals in five, two of them in the 2-1 at Estoril.
The last two meetings ended 0-0 and 1-0
Santa Clara won 1-0 at home in December 2025 and the April return finished 0-0. Neither came close to the line, and 1-1 is the model's alternative score here.
Porto put four past Casa Pia on 12 September
Casa Pia's 1-4 home defeat to FC Porto is a result that would beat this pick, and Santa Clara's 4-0 over Rio Ave on 6 September shows they can run up a score as well. If Santa Clara repeat that against a Casa Pia side that has lost three of its last five, a 0-4 or a 1-3 lands over the line.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Correct score: 0-1
- Correct score: 1-1
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.78Get the daily pick and the morning ticket on Telegram.
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League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +13 | 18 | |
| 2 | 6 | +17 | 16 | |
| 3 | 7 | +9 | 15 | |
| 4 | 6 | +7 | 14 | |
| 5 | 7 | +3 | 11 | |
| 6 | 6 | +2 | 10 | |
| 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 | |
| 8 | 6 | 0 | 8 | |
| 9 | 6 | -2 | 8 | |
| 10 | 7 | -2 | 8 | |
| 11 | 7 | -4 | 8 | |
| 12 | 7 | +2 | 7 | |
| 13 | 6 | -6 | 7 | |
| 14 | 6 | -3 | 4 | |
| 15 | 7 | -8 | 4 | |
| 16 | 7 | -10 | 4 | |
| 17 | 6 | -6 | 2 | |
| 18 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 18 | |
| 2 | Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 16 | |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 15 | |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 14 | |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 11 | |
| 6 | Estrela | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 10 | |
| 7 | SC Braga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | |
| 8 | GIL Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | |
| 9 | Academico Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 | |
| 12 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 | |
| 13 | Moreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 | |
| 14 | Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 | |
| 17 | Estoril | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 |