Athletic Club vs Sport Recife Prediction - 1 October 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.40Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 2-1
- Over 1.5 goals
- 5/5Athletic Club · last 5 games
Form
- D 2-2
- D 1-1
- W 2-0
- L 0-3
- W 5-0
- L 1-3
- W 2-1
- L 1-2
- W 2-0
- L 1-2
Head to head
- 11 Jun 2026 Sport Recife 1 Athletic Club 1 Serie B
- 18 Mar 2026 Sport Recife 1 Athletic Club 3 Copa Do Brasil
Team averages before kickoff
For
- 10.2Total shots14.6
- 3.4Shots on target4.0
- 3.6Corner kicks4.4
- 1.8Cards1.6
Against
- 17.2Total shots16.4
- 5.6Shots on target3.9
- 4.9Corner kicks7.4
- 1.6Cards1.7
Match analysis
Athletic Club vs Sport Recife on 1 October is a meeting of two mid-table Serie B sides with nothing pressing at either end of the table, and both keep finding the net. Superior's pick is Over 1.5 goals at 1.40 with a 70% chance.
Every one of the two sides' last ten games had at least two goals
Superior builds each side's expected scoring from what it has scored and conceded, then prices every scoreline on a Poisson grid. Here the two rates land close together, so the grid spreads its weight across 1-1, 2-1 and the one-goal scores instead of piling onto a blank. The recent record fits that shape: Athletic beat Vila Nova 5-0 and drew 2-2 at Fortaleza on 27 September, while Sport Recife's last five ended 1-3, 2-1, 1-2, 2-0 and 1-2. The two meetings this year, both in Recife, finished 1-1 and 3-1 to Athletic.
Athletic were shut out 3-0 at Cuiaba on 8 September
Over 1.5 loses to 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, and Athletic have already had a night without a goal this month, beaten 3-0 at Cuiaba. A repeat blank at home with Sport Recife scoring once is a 0-1, and that is the route the grid leaves open. Its single likeliest score is 1-1, which wins the bet, but one goal fewer from either side loses it.
Formations
Confirmed formations
Today's acca
2 matches, total odds 1.66LostMatch stats
Match overview
- 56%Ball possession44%
- 1.74Expected goals (xG)0.59
- 1Big chances1
- 29Total shots11
- 3Goalkeeper saves7
- 8Corner kicks6
- 12Fouls15
- 442Passes349
- 2Yellow cards2
Shots
- 8Shots on target5
- 11Shots off target5
- 10Blocked shots1
- 19Shots inside box7
- 10Shots outside box4
Attack
- 81Attacks40
- 1.21Expected assists (xA)0.52
- 20Key passes7
- 10/24 (42%)Dribbles6/13 (46%)
- 1Offsides0
Passes
- 388/442 (88%)Accurate passes286/349 (82%)
- 33/48 (69%)Long balls18/42 (43%)
- 11/31 (35%)Crosses6/17 (35%)
- 103Final third entries55
Defending
- 8/11 (73%)Tackles won13/20 (65%)
- 13Interceptions10
- 9Clearances36
- 5/17 (29%)Aerial duels12/17 (71%)
Other
- 15Free kicks10
- 27Throw-ins19
- 3Goal kicks13
More tips for this game
- Goals: Over 1.5
- Correct score: 1-1
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | +34 | 70 | ||
| 2 | 37 | +23 | 68 | ||
| 3 | 37 | +15 | 66 | ||
| 4 | 37 | +7 | 62 | ||
| 5 | 37 | +11 | 62 | ||
| 6 | 37 | +6 | 58 | ||
| 7 | 37 | -2 | 58 | ||
| 8 | 37 | +10 | 58 | ||
| 9 | 37 | +8 | 55 | ||
| 10 | 37 | -1 | 54 | ||
| 11 | 37 | +10 | 52 | ||
| 12 | 37 | +6 | 51 | ||
| 13 | 37 | +2 | 47 | ||
| 14 | 37 | 0 | 47 | ||
| 15 | 38 | -10 | 46 | ||
| 16 | 37 | -9 | 43 | ||
| 17 | 37 | -12 | 40 | ||
| 18 | 38 | -12 | 35 | ||
| 19 | 37 | -28 | 29 | ||
| 20 | 37 | -58 | 15 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 37 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 66 | 32 | 34 | 70 | WLLLW |
| 2 | Juventude | 37 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 49 | 26 | 23 | 68 | WLWWD |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 53 | 38 | 15 | 66 | LWLLW |
| 4 | Criciuma | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 62 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 37 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 44 | 33 | 11 | 62 | WLWLW |
| 6 | CRB | 37 | 17 | 7 | 13 | 57 | 51 | 6 | 58 | WWWDL |
| 7 | Goias | 37 | 17 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 58 | LDWDW |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 37 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 45 | 35 | 10 | 58 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 55 | DDDDL |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 49 | 50 | -1 | 54 | LWDWW |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 42 | 10 | 52 | LLDDL |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 37 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 51 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 47 | DLLDW |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 47 | DWDDL |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 46 | DWLLD |
| 16 | Ceara | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 43 | WLDDL |
| 17 | Avai | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 40 | LWDWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 38 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 35 | LLDDW |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 37 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 29 | WLDDL |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 37 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 21 | 79 | -58 | 15 | DLLLL |

