Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction

Projected scoreOur pick

1-1

Alternative:1-0

Goals: Under 3.51.33Won

Bookmaker odds

Home2.63

Draw3.14

Away2.83

Market move since Aug 20. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets

Total goals

Over 1.51.33

Under 1.52.85

Over 2.52.16

Under 2.51.70

Over 3.53.62

Under 3.51.21

Both teams to score

Yes1.82

No1.88

Odd/Even

Odd1.89

Even1.79

Handicap

Home +01.83

Away +01.97

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Vitoria vs Bahia?

The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 1-0 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Bahia are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Generated Aug 20, 2026, 00:06 UTCModel CS-3Methodology

Match highlights

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Match analysis

Bahia have drawn all five of their last five matches, four of them by a single goal or fewer apiece, and that stalemate run underpins Superior's Under 3.5 goals pick for Vitoria vs Bahia on 23 August. The price is 1.33, and the model's read on this line sits at 79 percent, above the roughly 75 percent break-even the price needs. Vitoria match that with a modest 1.0 goals a game of their own.

Bahia have not won or lost in five straight games

Four of those draws finished 0-0 or 1-1, the kind of contained scoreline Superior's model reads as a low expected combined output for either side. Vitoria add their own 1.0 goals a game, and this is a genuine Bahia state derby with history behind it, but neither side's recent output argues for an open, high-scoring game.

Bahia's last result was actually a 3-3 draw

That draw streak is not uniformly quiet: Bahia's most recent result, against Chapecoense, finished 3-3, the one game in this run where six goals went in. A repeat of that kind of afternoon, rather than the four tighter stalemates before it, is the real way this Under 3.5 pick loses.

Written by the Superior Football Desk · Text drafted by claude-sonnet-5

AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.

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Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

1-111.5%Projected
1-08.6%Alternative
0-18.1%
2-17.7%
0-07.3%

Top five combined: 43.2%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeVitoriaxG1.23

AwayBahiaxG1.12

9.6%

12%

7.2%

3.0%

0.9%

0.2%

0.1%

11%

13%

8.1%

3.3%

1.0%

0.3%

0.1%

6.0%

7.3%

4.5%

1.8%

0.6%

0.1%

0.0%

2.2%

2.7%

1.7%

0.7%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

0.6%

0.8%

0.5%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 47.6%52.4% No

Over 1.5 68.0%32.0% Under 1.5

Over 2.5 41.6%58.4% Under 2.5

Over 3.5 21.0%79.0% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Vitoria win and over 2.5 goals19.8%

Vitoria win and both teams score15.6%

Bahia win and over 2.5 goals16.6%

Draw and under 2.5 goals22.7%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets

Vitoria or draw66.7%

Bahia or draw61.2%

Either team wins72.0%

Draw no bet: Vitoria53.8%

Draw no bet: Bahia46.2%

Vitoria win to nil23.1%

Bahia win to nil19.7%

Team goals

Vitoria to score70.8%

Bahia to score67.3%

Vitoria over 1.5 goals34.8%

Bahia over 1.5 goals30.7%

Vitoria clean sheet32.7%

Bahia clean sheet29.2%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

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Today's acca

Lost

2 selections at 1.97

See the ticket

Team news

Expected formations

Bahia: 4-4-2(predicted)

Prediction, preview and head to head: Vitoria vs Bahia

Head to Head

Vitoria vs Bahia: Head-to-Head History
Date	Home	Score	Away
March 11, 2026	Bahia	1 - 1	Vitoria
March 7, 2026	Bahia	2 - 1	Vitoria
January 25, 2026	Vitoria	0 - 1	Bahia
October 17, 2025	Vitoria	2 - 1	Bahia
May 18, 2025	Bahia	2 - 1	Vitoria

League Table

Serie ABrazil · 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	25	15	7	3	45	21	+24	52
2	Flamengo	24	14	6	4	48	21	+27	48
3	Atletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	+12	45
4	Fluminense	25	11	9	5	39	32	+7	42
5	Bahia	25	10	10	5	37	30	+7	40
6	Cruzeiro FC	25	11	6	8	35	36	-1	39
7	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	-3	30
7	Coritiba	25	10	7	8	33	33	0	37
8	Atletico-MG	24	10	6	8	32	28	+4	36
9	RB Bragantino	24	10	5	9	29	25	+4	35
10	Corinthians	25	8	8	9	26	25	+1	32
11	Sao Paulo	24	8	6	10	29	28	+1	30
12	Botafogo	24	8	6	10	37	40	-3	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	-13	29
14	Santos	24	7	8	9	34	36	-2	29
15	Gremio	24	7	7	10	27	32	-5	28
16	Mirassol	24	6	7	11	27	37	-10	25
17	Vasco DA Gama	24	6	7	11	27	39	-12	25
18	Internacional	25	5	10	10	26	31	-5	25
19	Remo	25	5	8	12	30	42	-12	23
20	Chapecoense-sc	24	2	8	14	25	49	-24	14
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10

Relegation

Serie A - League Table
Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points	Form
1	Palmeiras	25	15	7	3	45	21	24	52	WLWWW
2	Flamengo	24	14	6	4	48	21	27	48	DDWWL
3	Atletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	12	45	DWWWW
4	Fluminense	25	11	9	5	39	32	7	42	DDDDL
5	Bahia	25	10	10	5	37	30	7	40	DDDWW
6	Cruzeiro FC	25	11	6	8	35	36	-1	39
7	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	-3	30	WLWDW
7	Coritiba	25	10	7	8	33	33	0	37	LDLLW
8	Atletico-MG	24	10	6	8	32	28	4	36	WDWLW
9	RB Bragantino	24	10	5	9	29	25	4	35	DDWWW
10	Corinthians	25	8	8	9	26	25	1	32	DDWWW
11	Sao Paulo	24	8	6	10	29	28	1	30	DLLDL
12	Botafogo	24	8	6	10	37	40	-3	30	WDWLD
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	-13	29	LLDWL
14	Santos	24	7	8	9	34	36	-2	29	DLWLL
15	Gremio	24	7	7	10	27	32	-5	28	DLLWD
16	Mirassol	24	6	7	11	27	37	-10	25	WDWLW
17	Vasco DA Gama	24	6	7	11	27	39	-12	25	DLLLL
18	Internacional	25	5	10	10	26	31	-5	25	DLLLL
19	Remo	25	5	8	12	30	42	-12	23	LWLWL
20	Chapecoense-sc	24	2	8	14	25	49	-24	14
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10

Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction - August 23, 2026

Bookmaker odds

What is the prediction for Vitoria vs Bahia?

Match highlights

Match analysis

Bahia have not won or lost in five straight games

Bahia's last result was actually a 3-3 draw

Markets to consider

Premium model depth

Scoreline Depth

Market Probability View

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

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More Serie A Predictions

Expected formations

Head to Head

League Table