Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction - August 23, 2026
Alternative:1-1
Goals: Under 3.51.37Lost
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 0, with 1-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Both teams are in similar form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
Four blanks in five away trips is Vasco DA Gama's current attacking record, and it is the reason Superior is willing to price Under 3.5 goals at 1.37 for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama on 23 August. This exact line carries the model's highest read of the day, 91 percent, well clear of the roughly 73 percent break-even the price needs. Palmeiras add a moderate 1.2 goals a game of their own, enough to lead this game without needing it to open up.
Vasco have scored in just one of their last five away games
That solitary goal came in a 3-1 win over Fluminense; the other four away trips produced nothing at all for Vasco's attack. Palmeiras carry a 6.7 attack rating against Vasco's 6.4 defence, a gap that should be enough on its own, and Superior's projection does not need Vasco to threaten for this line to hold.
Two of Palmeiras' last five games produced five goals each
Palmeiras have not been airtight themselves: two of their last five, both losses, finished with a combined five goals. Palmeiras' defence rates 6.2 out of 10, respectable but not immune to an open game, and a repeat of that kind of afternoon is the honest way this Under 3.5 pick loses.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
Best price we found across booksPremium model depth
Unlocked after full timePost match archive
Grade: LOST
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 1-010.4%Projected
- 1-19.7%Alternative
- 2-09.1%
- 2-19.1%
- 0-06.1%
Top five combined: 44.4%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Full Market Board
Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
Lost2 selections at 1.97
See the ticket
Team news
Expected formations
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 12, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama | 2 - 1 | Palmeiras |
| October 1, 2025 | Palmeiras | 3 - 0 | Vasco DA Gama |
| May 4, 2025 | Vasco DA Gama | 0 - 1 | Palmeiras |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | +24 | 52 | ||
| 2 | 24 | +27 | 48 | ||
| 3 | 25 | +12 | 45 | ||
| 4 | 25 | +7 | 42 | ||
| 5 | 25 | +7 | 40 | ||
| 6 | 25 | -1 | 39 | ||
| 7 | 21 | -3 | 30 | ||
| 7 | 25 | 0 | 37 | ||
| 8 | 24 | +4 | 36 | ||
| 9 | 24 | +4 | 35 | ||
| 10 | 25 | +1 | 32 | ||
| 11 | 24 | +1 | 30 | ||
| 12 | 24 | -3 | 30 | ||
| 13 | 25 | -13 | 29 | ||
| 14 | 24 | -2 | 29 | ||
| 15 | 24 | -5 | 28 | ||
| 16 | 24 | -10 | 25 | ||
| 17 | 24 | -12 | 25 | ||
| 18 | 25 | -5 | 25 | ||
| 19 | 25 | -12 | 23 | ||
| 20 | 24 | -24 | 14 | ||
| 20 | 20 | -22 | 10 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Flamengo | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 48 | DDWWL |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 45 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 42 | DDDDL |
| 5 | Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 40 | DDDWW |
| 6 | Cruzeiro FC | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 39 | |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 30 | WLWDW |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 37 | LDLLW |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 36 | WDWLW |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 35 | DDWWW |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 32 | DDWWW |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 30 | DLLDL |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 30 | WDWLD |
| 13 | Vitoria | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 29 | LLDWL |
| 14 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 29 | DLWLL |
| 15 | Gremio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 28 | DLLWD |
| 16 | Mirassol | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 25 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Vasco DA Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 25 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 25 | DLLLL |
| 19 | Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 23 | LWLWL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |