MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg vs Rostock Seawolves basketball prediction

BBL
MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg
vs
Rostock Seawolves
Correct score
87-83
Home69%
Away31%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg vs Rostock Seawolves?

Basketball: MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg vs Rostock Seawolves (BBL). We make it 87-83. MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg is favoured at 69%. Our predicted total is 170 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg by 4Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginMHP Riesen LudwigsburgRostock Seawolves
Wins69%31%
By 6+53%21%
By 11+38%12%
By 16+24%7%
By 21+14%3%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg

Season record
0-1
Points per game
77
Points allowed
86
Rest
4 d
  1. L77-86Ulm
  2. W98-73Kirchheim Knights
  3. L71-91Rostock Seawolves
  4. L58-75Wurzburg
  5. L78-86Bayern Munich

Rostock Seawolves

Season record
1-0
Points per game
102
Points allowed
92
Rest
5 d
  1. W102-92Phoenix Hagen
  2. L81-90Hamburg Towers
  3. L69-76Trier
  4. W91-71MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg
  5. W103-71Hamburg Towers

Head to head

  1. May 12, 26Rostock Seawolves91MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg71
  2. Apr 25, 26MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg75Rostock Seawolves61
  3. Dec 15, 25Rostock Seawolves96MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg89
  4. Apr 5, 25Rostock Seawolves94MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg89
  5. Oct 2, 24MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg70Rostock Seawolves64

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology