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Why this ticket

Superior's frozen parlay for 31 August combines two legs at a combined 3.43: Astros to win by two points or more at Freseros de Irapuato (Away -1.5, priced 2.12), and Dallas Wings Women plus Connecticut Sun Women to combine for more than 163.5 points (priced 1.62). Both legs settle Including Overtime, on the final score rather than the regulation score alone, and every leg has to land for the ticket to pay.

Astros have won by an average of nearly 14 points across four meetings

Astros arrive 10-4 with the better scoring margin in this series, plus 9.1 a game against Freseros' minus 3.5, and their four meetings on record with Freseros went 20, 16, 14 and 5 points their way. The projected score, Astros 89 to Freseros 82, clears the -1.5 number by five and a half points. The main risk to this leg is a repeat of that closest five point game, which fails the spread even with an Astros win.

Four of the last five meetings between these two topped 163.5 combined points

Dallas Wings are 25-16 and average 89.2 points a game on five days of rest, while Connecticut Sun have lost four of their last five and are conceding 87.1 a game on just two days of rest. The last five meetings between these clubs finished at 146, 169, 196, 169 and 196 combined, four of five above this 163.5 line, and the model projects a 167 point total this time. A combined score of 163 or fewer is what breaks this leg, and that already happened once this season, at 146.

The Dallas and Connecticut total is the weaker leg of the two

The Astros spread carries a 75 percent model probability against 62 percent for the Dallas and Connecticut total, so the total is where this ticket is more likely to fall. A repeat of that 146 point meeting from August breaks the parlay even if Astros cover as expected, since every leg must land for the 3.43 to pay out.

Written by the Superior Basketball Desk