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Ticket analysis

Mosta have not played a game with fewer than two goals in any of their last five, back to 5 September, and four of them ended level. That run anchors a Maltese Premier League double at total odds of 1.63, with Over 1.5 goals in both Mosta vs Valletta FC and Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC.

Mosta keep drawing with goals in it

Mosta's October draws were 2-2 with Birzebbuga, 1-1 at Gzira United and 3-3 at Floriana on Sunday, and their one win in the run was 3-1 at Sliema Wanderers.

Valletta have put five and four past Mosta

Valletta have scored at least twice in all of their last five, the 2-1 over Sliema Wanderers on Saturday the latest, and the last two league meetings with Mosta finished 5-0 and 4-1 to Valletta.

Hamrun's two 1-0 wins over Balzan

Hamrun vs Balzan is the weaker game. Hamrun beat Balzan 1-0 at home in February 2025 and in September 2023, and Balzan drew 0-0 with Sliema Wanderers on 20 September, results that would have beaten this pick. Hamrun's own games have run the other way lately, 2-2 at Gzira United on Sunday and 2-2 with Hibernians before that, and they average 1.8 goals a game to Balzan's 1.4.

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