Moreirense vs Benfica Prediction - September 9, 2026
Alternative:0-2
Match Winner: Away1.30Won
What is the prediction for Moreirense vs Benfica?
The model's leading scoreline is 0 - 3, with 0-2 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Benfica are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
Benfica have scored 18 goals across five straight wins, yet Superior's model rates its away-win pick for Moreirense vs Benfica in the Primeira Liga on 9 September at just 50 percent, priced at 1.3, a good deal more cautious than that price implies. Moreirense's own inconsistent form is the reason the number stops there.
Benfica have scored 18 goals in their last five games
That run, at 3.6 goals a game, dwarfs Moreirense's own 1.2, and the head-to-head backs it up: Benfica won the reverse fixture 4-1 in April. Moreirense have also won two of their last five, though, including a draw last time out, and it is that inconsistency, not Benfica's quality, that keeps Superior's number at 50 rather than closer to what the market is pricing.
Moreirense have won two of their last five at home
The way this loses is a draw or a home win, and Moreirense's own record (LWLDW) shows they are capable of both, including a win and a draw already this season. Benfica's away form has been dominant, but a below-par attacking day against a side that has shown it will not simply roll over is exactly the scenario Superior's cautious number is built to survive.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
Best price we found across booksPremium model depth
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Grade: WON
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 0-310.1%Projected
- 0-29.8%Alternative
- 1-38.0%
- 0-47.8%
- 1-27.8%
Top five combined: 43.5%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Full Market Board
Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
2 selections at 1.93
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Expected formations
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 25, 2026 | Benfica | 4 - 1 | Moreirense |
| December 14, 2025 | Moreirense | 0 - 4 | Benfica |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +10 | 15 | ||
| 2 | 5 | +15 | 13 | ||
| 3 | 5 | +9 | 13 | ||
| 4 | 5 | +6 | 11 | ||
| 5 | 5 | +4 | 10 | ||
| 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 | ||
| 7 | 3 | +2 | 7 | ||
| 8 | 5 | -2 | 7 | ||
| 9 | 4 | +1 | 6 | ||
| 10 | 5 | -3 | 5 | ||
| 11 | 5 | -2 | 4 | ||
| 12 | 5 | -2 | 4 | ||
| 13 | 5 | -8 | 4 | ||
| 14 | 5 | -2 | 3 | ||
| 15 | 5 | -9 | 3 | ||
| 16 | 5 | -5 | 2 | ||
| 17 | 5 | -5 | 2 | ||
| 18 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | |
| 2 | Benfica | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 13 | |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | |
| 5 | Arouca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 | |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| 7 | SC Braga | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| 8 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 9 | Estrela | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 | |
| 10 | Academico Viseu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | |
| 11 | Guimaraes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | |
| 12 | Nacional | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | |
| 13 | Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 | |
| 14 | Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 | |
| 16 | Estoril | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 | |
| 17 | Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 |