Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction - September 9, 2026

League CupEnglandFull time
Chelsea
6:3
Leeds
Projected scoreOur pick
2-1

Alternative:1-1

Goals: Under 3.51.50Lost

Bookmaker odds

Home1.48price falling, opened at 1.66
Draw4.54price rising, opened at 4.06
Away6.45price rising, opened at 4.86

Market move since Sep 6. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.15price falling, opened at 1.18
Under 1.54.85price rising, opened at 4.25
Over 2.51.58price falling, opened at 1.69
Under 2.52.38price rising, opened at 2.17
Over 3.52.38price falling, opened at 2.63
Under 3.51.53price rising, opened at 1.42
Both teams to score
Yes1.69price rising, opened at 1.67
No2.07price falling, opened at 2.10
Odd/Even
Odd1.87price rising, opened at 1.86
Even1.83price falling, opened at 1.84
Handicap
Home -1.252.00
Away +1.251.81

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Chelsea vs Leeds?

The model's leading scoreline is 2 - 1, with 1-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Chelsea are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-4Methodology

Match highlights

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Markets to consider

Best price we found across books
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Post match archive

Grade: LOST

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 2-19.6%Projected
  2. 1-19.0%Alternative
  3. 2-07.4%
  4. 1-06.9%
  5. 3-16.8%

Top five combined: 39.7%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeChelseaxG2.13
AwayLeedsxG1.30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
3.3%
6.9%
7.4%
5.2%
2.8%
1.2%
0.6%
1
4.2%
9.0%
9.6%
6.8%
3.6%
1.5%
0.8%
2
2.7%
5.8%
6.2%
4.4%
2.3%
1.0%
0.5%
3
1.2%
2.5%
2.7%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
5
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
6+
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 64.0%36.0% No
Over 1.5 85.6%14.4% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 66.5%33.5% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 44.7%55.3% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Chelsea win and over 2.5 goals42.1%
Chelsea win and both teams score32.3%
Leeds win and over 2.5 goals15.9%
Draw and under 2.5 goals12.3%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Chelsea or draw77.1%
Leeds or draw43.6%
Either team wins79.3%
Draw no bet: Chelsea71.1%
Draw no bet: Leeds28.9%
Chelsea win to nil24.1%
Leeds win to nil8.7%
Team goals
Chelsea to score88.1%
Leeds to score72.7%
Chelsea over 1.5 goals62.7%
Leeds over 1.5 goals37.2%
Chelsea clean sheet27.3%
Leeds clean sheet11.9%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

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Today's acca

2 selections at 1.93

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Prediction, preview and head to head: Chelsea vs Leeds
Head to Head

Head to Head

Chelsea
1 - 0
Leeds
April 26, 2026
Chelsea
2 - 2
Leeds
February 10, 2026
Leeds
3 - 1
Chelsea
December 3, 2025
Chelsea vs Leeds: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
April 26, 2026Chelsea1 - 0Leeds
February 10, 2026Chelsea2 - 2Leeds
December 3, 2025Leeds3 - 1Chelsea

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