Al Shorta vs Erbil Prediction - September 4, 2026
Alternative:2-1
Goals: Over 1.51.27Lost
What is the prediction for Al Shorta vs Erbil?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 2-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Erbil are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
Both Al Shorta and Erbil are fighting for a continental qualification spot on the final day of the season, high-stakes context behind Superior's Over 1.5 goals pick on 4 September, priced at 1.27 with the model 67 percent confident. Erbil arrive on four days' rest after their last match.
Both sides are scoring freely with everything on the line
Al Shorta are averaging 1.4 goals a game themselves and Erbil 1.6, a combined rate of 3.0 that clears this line comfortably, and both attacks have found the net in four of their own last five matches. A final-day continental race tends to produce committed, front-foot football rather than a cagey stalemate.
The one meeting on record finished with a single goal
The only previous meeting between these sides on record finished 0-1, just one goal in the whole game. If nerves on a final matchday produce a similarly tight, cautious contest instead of the open game both attacking records suggest, a 1-0 or a 0-0 is the only way this loses, and that single data point is worth respecting even though it stands alone.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
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Grade: LOST
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 1-111.4%Projected
- 2-19.3%Alternative
- 1-09.0%
- 1-27.3%
- 2-07.3%
Top five combined: 44.3%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Full Market Board
Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
2 selections at 2.07
See the ticket
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 24, 2025 | Erbil | 1 - 0 | Al Shorta |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | +34 | 89 | ||
| 2 | 38 | +37 | 80 | ||
| 3 | 38 | +27 | 79 | ||
| 4 | 38 | +18 | 66 | ||
| 5 | 38 | +27 | 65 | ||
| 6 | 38 | +15 | 65 | ||
| 7 | 38 | +10 | 60 | ||
| 8 | 38 | +1 | 54 | ||
| 9 | 38 | +4 | 53 | ||
| 10 | 38 | -1 | 50 | ||
| 11 | 38 | -2 | 49 | ||
| 12 | 38 | -1 | 48 | ||
| 13 | 38 | -3 | 47 | ||
| 14 | 38 | -3 | 44 | ||
| 15 | 38 | -9 | 43 | ||
| 16 | 38 | -9 | 40 | ||
| 17 | 37 | -12 | 38 | ||
| 18 | 38 | -21 | 37 | ||
| 19 | 37 | -37 | 23 | ||
| 20 | 38 | -75 | 6 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 62 | 28 | 34 | 89 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Al Shorta | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 69 | 32 | 37 | 80 | DWLWW |
| 3 | Erbil | 38 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 59 | 32 | 27 | 79 | WWWLW |
| 4 | Al Zawra'a | 38 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 66 | LLLDW |
| 5 | Al-Karma | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 65 | WWDDW |
| 6 | Al Talaba | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 53 | 38 | 15 | 65 | DDDLD |
| 7 | Al Karkh | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 60 | DLWDW |
| 8 | Newroz | 38 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 54 | LDWWL |
| 9 | Zakho | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 53 | LLDLD |
| 10 | Duhok | 38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 44 | 45 | -1 | 50 | LLDDW |
| 11 | Diyala | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 49 | WLLLW |
| 12 | Naft | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 | WWDDL |
| 13 | Mosul | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 47 | WDLDD |
| 14 | Gharraf | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 44 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Naft Maysan | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 43 | WLWWD |
| 16 | Al Minaa Basra | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 40 | DDDWD |
| 17 | Al Kahrabaa | 37 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 38 | LWDWW |
| 18 | Baghdad | 38 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 37 | LLWLL |
| 19 | Al Najaf | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 31 | 68 | -37 | 23 | WWLLD |
| 20 | Al-Qasim | 38 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 21 | 96 | -75 | 6 | LLLDL |