Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios Prediction - 30 September 2026
Our pick:Home Goals: Under 2.5
79%Odds 1.19
Correct score1-1Alternative1-0
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
Our correct score is 1-1, then 1-0. Millonarios are in better form heading into this match.
Match analysis
Superior is backing Independiente Medellin to score under 2.5 goals against Millonarios, at 1.19, in a game that kicks off on the evening of 29 September, Colombian time. The model gives Medellin's team total a 79% chance of stopping at two, because Millonarios haven't conceded more than once in any of their last five games.
Millonarios drew 1-1 at Atletico Nacional on 25 September
That draw capped a run of 3-0 against Chico, 2-1 at Cucuta and 1-1 draws with Deportivo Cali and at Deportivo Pereira. Superior builds Medellin's expected goals from two sides of the ledger, what Medellin score and what Millonarios concede, and the Millonarios side of it pulls the rate down hard. The two most recent meetings point the same way, a 0-0 away at Millonarios in February and a 1-0 Medellin home win in August 2025.
Medellin scored four at Pasto and three at Pereira in September
Medellin average 2.4 goals a game, right at the line, and two of their last five cleared it, 4-1 at Deportivo Pasto on 10 September and 3-0 at Deportivo Pereira on 4 September. A third Medellin goal settles this against us whatever Millonarios do, so a 3-1 or a 3-2 loses this pick even in a close match. At 1.19 the price leaves little room for nights like those two.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Double Chance: Home/Draw
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Correct score: 1-1
Today's acca
1 games, total odds 1.35Get the daily pick and the morning ticket on Telegram.
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Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 February 2026 | Millonarios | 0 - 0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 3 August 2025 | Independiente Medellin | 1 - 0 | Millonarios |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | +20 | 40 | ||
| 2 | 19 | +7 | 35 | ||
| 3 | 19 | +4 | 34 | ||
| 4 | 19 | +10 | 33 | ||
| 5 | 19 | +9 | 33 | ||
| 6 | 19 | +10 | 31 | ||
| 7 | 19 | +7 | 29 | ||
| 8 | 19 | 0 | 28 | ||
| 8 | 19 | 0 | 28 | ||
| 9 | 19 | +4 | 27 | ||
| 10 | 19 | +8 | 26 | ||
| 11 | 19 | +2 | 26 | ||
| 12 | 19 | -5 | 26 | ||
| 12 | 19 | -5 | 26 | ||
| 13 | 19 | +6 | 23 | ||
| 14 | 19 | -3 | 22 | ||
| 15 | 19 | -5 | 22 | ||
| 16 | 19 | -13 | 18 | ||
| 17 | 19 | -14 | 17 | ||
| 17 | 19 | -14 | 17 | ||
| 18 | 19 | -17 | 17 | ||
| 19 | 19 | -13 | 16 | ||
| 19 | 19 | -13 | 16 | ||
| 20 | 19 | -17 | 10 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 40 | WWLWW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 35 | LLLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 34 | LLLLL |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 33 | WWLDW |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 33 | DWDLW |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 31 | WWLLW |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 29 | DLLDW |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 | LLLLW |
| 8 | La Equidad FC | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 | |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 27 | LWDWL |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 26 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 26 | WWLWW |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 | WWWDL |
| 12 | Rionegro Aguilas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 | |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 23 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 | DWLDL |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 | DDWLL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 | LLWDL |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 | |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 | LWLLW |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 | LLDLW |
| 19 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 | |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 | DLLWL |