Defensor Sporting vs Danubio Prediction - 27 September 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
75%Odds 1.23
Correct score1-1Alternative1-0
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?
Our correct score is 1-1, then 1-0. Defensor Sporting are in better form heading into this match.
Match analysis
Defensor Sporting and Danubio have not gone past three goals in any of their last three meetings, which finished 0-0, 2-1 and 1-1. Superior backs Under 3.5 goals for 27 September; the model gives three goals or fewer a 75 percent chance and the price is 1.23.
Defensor and Danubio average 1.6 goals a game between them
Defensor average 1.2 goals scored across their last five and Danubio 0.4, and Superior's model builds its expected goals for each side from measured scoring and conceding before pricing the score grid. Against a line of 3.5, the bet survives any score up to 3-0 or 2-1. Danubio have failed to score in three of their last five, and their last two games were both 1-1 draws.
Peñarol put four past Danubio on 5 September
Danubio lost 4-0 at home to Peñarol, and Defensor have gone past the line twice themselves, losing 3-2 at Nacional on 20 September and 3-1 at home to Torque. Four goals is where this bet loses, so one open game from either defence is enough to beat it.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Correct score: 1-1
- Correct score: 1-0
Today's acca
1 games, total odds 1.35Get the daily pick and the morning ticket on Telegram.
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Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 March 2026 | Danubio | 0 - 0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 19 September 2025 | Defensor Sporting | 2 - 1 | Danubio |
| 27 March 2025 | Danubio | 1 - 1 | Defensor Sporting |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | +23 | 55 | ||
| 2 | 28 | +19 | 53 | ||
| 3 | 30 | +12 | 53 | ||
| 4 | 15 | +7 | 27 | ||
| 4 | 29 | +17 | 52 | ||
| 5 | 30 | +7 | 49 | ||
| 6 | 29 | +1 | 44 | ||
| 7 | 29 | +10 | 43 | ||
| 8 | 29 | -6 | 38 | ||
| 9 | 29 | -4 | 35 | ||
| 10 | 29 | -1 | 34 | ||
| 11 | 30 | -6 | 33 | ||
| 12 | 29 | -8 | 32 | ||
| 13 | 29 | -20 | 32 | ||
| 14 | 29 | -12 | 30 | ||
| 15 | 30 | -18 | 28 | ||
| 16 | 29 | -14 | 26 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peñarol Montevideo | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 55 | |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 28 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 51 | 32 | 19 | 53 | LWWLW |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 36 | 24 | 12 | 53 | WLDDD |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 27 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 52 | DLDWW |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 49 | LDWLW |
| 6 | Wanderers | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 43 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 38 | DLDDW |
| 9 | Juventud | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 35 | DWLDL |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 34 | DLDWL |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 33 | LWDDW |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 32 | LDDDL |
| 13 | Cerro | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 32 | WWLLW |
| 14 | Boston River | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 | LLDDL |
| 15 | Progreso | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 16 | Danubio | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 26 | DLDDD |